NFL Week 17 Betting Analysis Panthers @ Saints
The Carolina Panthers (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS), fresh off a gut-wrenching defeat against the New York Giants, will have an opportunity to clinch the NFC South title on Sunday when they face off against the New Orleans Saints (8-7 SU, 10-4-1 ATS) in NFL pro football sports betting action that is set to get underway at 1 PM ET at the Louisiana Superdome (artificial turf) in New Orleans.
BetUS NFL betting odds: CAROLINA -3
NOTABLE STAT: Panthers average 4.8 yards per carry
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Saints have won and covered six of last seven at home
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Panthers are listed as a three-point favorite.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* CAR has won seven of its last nine games SU
* CAR has played five of its last six games OVER the total
* CAR has lost four of its last six road games SU
* CAR has covered two of its last six road games
* CAR has played seven of its last ten road games OVER the total
* NO is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games
* NO has won four of its last six games SU
* NO has played 14 of its last 20 games OVER the total
* NO has won and covered six of its last seven home games
* NO has played ten of its last 12 home games OVER the total
Also…
* CAR has covered four of the last six meetings
* CAR has won five of the last six meetings SU
* Seven of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
* CAR has won and covered the last seven meetings as the road team
At the top of this analysis it is important to point out what Drew Brees has done this season en route to his being named to the NFC squad in the Pro Bowl. Brees, who threw for 4423 yards last season, has surpassed that already and with 4683 yards he is position to break Dan Marino’s all-time NFL record for yards in a season if he can get 402 yards in Sunday’s game. That’s a figure he’s exceeded only twice this year.
When asked about the record, Brees seemed genuinely excited about the opportunity to break it. I imagine it could be pass first, second and third, with running as an afterthought in this game. If that is the case, it would take the Saints away from a formula that’s actually brought them decent results in a couple of their recent wins. For example, they had 181 yards on the ground against Detroit to help propel an offense that ran up 32 first downs and were 11-for-12 in third down efficiency.
Two weeks ago against Chicago, Brees threw the ball 49 times, and only 12 running plays were called. This offense can very easily be one-dimensional, and the Panthers will key on that. I can see Brees using Deuce McAllister, who may be playing his last game in the Superdome, but primarily as a pass receiver. Whatever happens, expect that the Panthers will not be playing eight in the box, but will be in nickel and dime packages right from the outset.
It’s become a critical situation for Carolina, because the Panthers must win this game or face the possibility of having to compete on the road in the playoffs. They’ve got the Atlanta Falcons breathing down their necks, hosting St. Louis this weekend and ready to pounce. They will obviously try to run. Conventional wisdom is that the Panthers are rock-ribbed on defense, while New Orleans is soft on its own defensive front. But the stats don’t bear that out. The Saints against the run, both per carry and per game, are better than the NFL average, while Carolina’s figures are worse than the NFL average. We saw them give up 301 yards to the Giants on Sunday night.
Trends for this series greatly favor Carolina, which has covered seven straight times as the visitor against the Saints. But New Orleans has reversed its own negative trend at home, covering six of seven at the Superdome this year. Brees’ exploits haven’t gotten them to the playoffs, but they are 10-4-1 against the number, and he has 19 TD’s with just four INT’s at home. Carolina also has to get emotionally ready after a very tough loss to the Giants. We’re going to take points with the Saints here, and they’re getting a field goal in the BetUS Sportsbook NFL pro football sports betting odds.
