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Week 16 Packers vs. Bears NFL Predictions – MNF

The Chicago Bears play host to their arch-rivals, the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North game slated to kick off at 8:30 PM ET at Soldier Field in the Windy City. We preview and pick this week 16 game…

NFL Betting Heated Rivalry Bears vs Packers

The Chicago Bears (8-6 SU, 6-6-2 ATS) find themselves in “must win” territory on Monday night when they play host to their arch-rivals, the Green Bay Packers (5-9 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) in an NFC North game in NFL pro football sports betting action that is slated to kick off at 8:30 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in the Windy City.  

BetUS NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -4, Total 41

NOTABLE STAT: Packers are allowing 4.8 yards per rushing attempt
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Bears have played seven of last nine home games over the total

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a four-point favorite, with a posted total of 41 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* GB has covered one of its last five games
* GB has lost six of its last seven games SU
* GB has played 16 of its last 23 games OVER the total
* GB has lost five of its last six road games SU
* GB has played eight of its last 12 road games OVER the total
* CHI is 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games
* CHI has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* CHI has won five of its last six home games SU
* CHI has played seven of its last nine home games OVER the total

Also…

* GB is 10-5-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings
* GB has won 17 of the last 25 meetings SU
* CHI has won five of the last seven meetings SU
* GB has covered seven of the last nine meetings as the road team
* GB has won 12 of the last 14 meetings SU as the road team
* Thirteen of the last 19 meetings in Chicago have gone OVER the total

Of course, there is a huge revenge angle here. Remember that press conference when Lovie Smith got the job with the Bears? He talked about how, outside of making it to the playoffs, his top priority was going to be drilling the Green Bay Packers. So you know it had to hurt back on November 16, when his team gave up 200 yards on the ground and was held to 234 total yards on offense in losing a 37-3 blowout.

Since that game the Packers have played themselves out of the NFC North race after getting into a three-way tie at 5-5. Four straight losses have dimmed the mood at Lambeau Field, as the Pack has been beaten by a total of 11 points in the last three. You really can’t blame the Green Bay collapse on the fact that they decided to go with Aaron Rodgers instead of Brett Favre this year. The Packer quarterback has not had a meltdown, throwing for 871 yards the last three weeks, with six TD’s and just three interceptions. There are other reasons. Ryan Grant, who has over 1000 yards rushing for the first time in his career, has not been producing as consistently as he would like, and had just 56 yards on 21 carries against the Jaguars last week.

There have been breakdowns on defense, particularly in the secondary which gave up 408 yards to Matt Schaub of Houston a couple of weeks ago and failed to slow down Drew Brees in New Orleans in that 51-29 defeat that started this tailspin. Even though Green Bay has a couple of people who can rush the passer, they have had a whale of a time stopping the other team on the ground; through 14 games they are surrendering 4.8 yards a carry.

That’s what Chicago will center on and they have the guy to do it in workhorse Matt Forte (1115 yards, 4 ypc), who had six receptions and 64 yards rushing in the first meeting. Despite completing just 13 of 26 against Green Bay the first time around, Kyle Orton did not throw an interception but the former Purdue signal-caller (59%, 15 TD’s) has thrown six of his 10 interceptions in the last three weeks. The big play element could be on Chicago’s side here as Devin Hester (43 catches, 568 yards) has become an established target, and Danieal Manning, who has picked up where he left off on the kickoff return unit, took one back for a TD last week.

Most significantly, we do not see Chicago’s defense (3.5 ypc yielded) allowing another 200 yards to the Packers’ rushing attack again. This is going to be part of the fundamental difference, aside from the desperation the Bears will undoubtedly be playing with. In this game we take the Bears, the four-point favorite in the BetUS NFL pro football sports betting odds, and lay the points.

OUR PLAY: CHICAGO -4 ***