Bubble Buster – Lions To Upset The Baltimore Ravens
Every week, the oddsmakers trot out these mega spreads whenever a “good team” plays a “bad team” and at least once a week, one of the underdogs gives the favorite a serious run for its money. It’s happened with the Browns, Bucs, Raiders, Chiefs and Rams. Now it’s the Lions’ turn, who enjoy one major advantage over the Ravens – Calvin Johnson.
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Megatron has been awfully quiet this season, and a large reason is because the Lions have just two wins this entire season. What I hate about Baltimore is this dizzying notion that their defense is as good as it used to be. The fact is that it’s not and it hasn’t been all season. The Ravens have given up 215.0 yards per game passing, and they’ve been ripped apart by injuries to key players. Terrell Suggs will likely miss Sunday’s game, and he’ll be joined on the sidelines by Ed Reed, the safety stud for the Ravens. Baltimore is riding the coattails of a defense that existed well before this year, and they’ve been caught under the sports betting bus with a 1-4 ATS record in five games.
It’s not like the Lions have a terrific record on their own end. They’re just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have the worst overall defense in the league. They allow 29.8 points per game, the most by any team in the league and on the road they surrender 282.5 yards passing and d 123.5 yards rushing. The thing about Detroit’s offense, however, is that it’s been quietly humming along with the development of the Stafford-Calvin connection and a very humble season from running-back Kevin Smith. If any major underdog in the entire league has a chance of seriously upsetting the playoff hopes of a bubble team this weekend, I’m handing it to the Lions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Detroit Lions (2-9) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Sunday, December 1st
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore — 1:00pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -13.5 (39.5)
Getting back to Smith, who has only broken the 100-yard ceiling once this year, he is underrated in terms of his pass catching ability. He has 39 catches for 396 yards, giving him an average of 10.2 yards per catch. Baltimore linebackers, especially without Suggs, have not been able to stop pass-catching threats out of the backfield all that well and haven’t really had to adjust to that type of player since they haven’t faced one since playing at Minnesota against Adrian Peterson.
Without Ed Reed to secure the safety position, Baltimore is extremely vulnerable. We’ve seen the exact same type of problem in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have literally fallen in to the gutter face first without Troy Polamalu. Without Ed Reed, Calvin Johnson will have all sorts of daylight in Baltimore and Stafford has shown a keen sense of locating Megatron when he desperately needs him.
So what about Joe Flacco and Ray Rice? Well let’s look at Flacco last five games and it’ll give you a good idea of where my critique on Mr. Delaware is going. He’s averaged 206.4 yards, totaled two touchdowns and amassed 6 interceptions. Why he’s still considered elite is not because of his numbers; again it’s because of what he did last year. Well it’s 2009, and as of late we haven’t seen Joe do much of anything special. Rice is still a very special player, but he’ll be hounded by Ernie Sims and a very fast linebacking corps that is sneakily efficient at homing in on the run.
Detroit has the same stats that I have access to, and knowing that Joe is not capable taking a game in to his own hands, they’ll focus nearly all of their energy on containing Ray Rice and leaving the offense in the capable hands of Matt Ryan. Yes, I know this is a game between Baltimore and Detroit, but this one has upset written all over it. This Ravens team has been overachieving and garnering far too much love from the analysts. They’re going to get a reality check when Detroit lands the biggest upset of the week. If anything, Detroit can cover this large spread so take the line, but if you’re feeling ballsy, then go for the huge moneyline.
Free Pick: Detroit +13.5 (UNDER)
