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NFL Week 11: Saints vs Buccaneers Predictions

NFL Betting Preview – New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There’s one guy on the Saints roster that has given Tampa Bay fits throughout the years, and that’s Reggie Bush. No matter how poorly his season is going, Reggie always finds a way to score on the Bucs and steal games for the Saints. But guess who’s on the injury report after missing two practices this week? That’s right – Reggie Bush. Does his absence leave the Bucs a slight opening?

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The Saints have been awfully resilient over the past four weeks, coming from behind in 3-of-4 games and holding off a near comeback by Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Compared to the Colts, however, their competition has been seriously lacking and they really haven’t been tested to the brink.

Think about it – they nearly lost to the St. Louis Rams and they absolutely gutted their betting faithful in a 28-24 win when they had a double-digit spread to cover.

I’ve been touching on this subject all season, but the league’s leading offense (36.8 points per game) is starting to show weakness, wear and tear as the season marches on. They are pushing up big scores in exciting games, but they’re just not dismantling teams like they’re supposed to be doing. With Reggie Bush out, the workload falls to the unreliable PT Cruiser and an injury prone Mike Bell.

Is it true? Can the Bucs post an upset with a rookie at quarterback facing the best team in the NFC right now? Tampa is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, but they’re 2-0 ATS when Josh Freeman is under center. Sure, they may be 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing New Orleans, but a lot of that was attributed to their inability to catch Reggie Bush. With the former USC standout out of the picture, the Bucs sure as hell have an opening.

New Orleans Saints (9-0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

Sunday, November 22nd — 1:00pm EST
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

NFL Betting Line: New Orleans -11 (50.5)

Listen, it’s not like I’m saying the Saints are finished. Far from it. But from a betting standpoint, I’m shying away from the Saints. The Panthers gave them a scare, and Miami nearly blew them out. The Giants were weaklings when we didn’t know it, and the Rams pushed the Big Easy boys to the brink of destruction and chaos. New Orleans may be 11-4-1 ATS in 16 games and undefeated thus far, with a 4-1 ATS record in the fold, but something is amiss for these guys. I’m telling you. Something’s off.

Enter a Bucs team that nearly thwarted the Dolphins and completely upset the Green Bay Packers and I think you have an upset special in the making. Nobody is expecting Tampa Bay to pack the house and give New Orleans a black eye on their unblemished record…but I am.

Josh Freeman still has some mechanics to iron out, but Antonio Bryant’s return stands to make this Bucs team far more dangerous than their pathetic winning record gives them credit for.

I love Tampa with the points, but don’t be ballsy enough to take them on the win. Just don’t be so surprised if they knock the Saints off their high horse this weekend. I’d hate to say “I told ya so” on Monday. Just kidding…I’d love to!

Free Pick: Tampa +11 (UNDER)

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