NFL Week 9 – Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills Preview
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Bears at Bills Matchup
Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 7 – 1 p.m.
Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Bears vs. Bills lines
MoneyLine: Bears -145/Bills +125
Spread: Bears -3
Over/Under: 41
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Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills
After last season’s disaster things figured to improve for Bears QB Jay Cutler, especially with Mike Martz on board to run the offense. Well, maybe and sorta. With the Bears having all kinds of protection problems, Cutler has been mired in the middle of the pack statistically. He is 19th in quarterback rating and 18th in passing yards (behind, gulf, even Alex Smith). Cutler has cut down the number of interceptions (7 in 6 games, after 26 last season), but the Bears are also scoring less (only Seattle, Arizona and Carolina have fewer points per game).
Part of the problem is the fact that the Bears simply cannot run the football. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor figured to be an above-average tandem, but both are averaging less than 4 yards a carry. Without an offensive line, running the ball is impossible. Without being able to run the ball, protecting the quarterback is next to impossible. The concussion Cutler suffered in Week 4 (he missed a game and a half) is evidence of that.
Martz, who in a perfect world would pass on every down, actually has the Bears passing less this season. Last year Cutler averaged nearly 35 passes a game as the Bears tried out their new toy after acquiring him from Denver; this season Cutler throws have been cut down to 30.
With the Bears ailing a bit, this could provide an opportunity for the snake-bitten Bills, who have lost two consecutive overtime games and are the league’s only candidate to equal the 0-16 record set by the 2008 Lions.
NFL Trends:
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The picks: This is Buffalo’s annual foray into Canada, and the Bills are starting a three-game stretch of winnable games (Detoit and Cincinnati are next). Assuming the team has not given up – Chan Gailey’s comments after the OT loss in Kansas City were a bit disturbing – this one sets up pretty well for the Bills. It probably costs them a point or two not having this at home, but at 3 Buffalo could do some damage against a team that doesn’t have it all together.
The Bills have the secondary to make sure Bears receivers don’t get too much separation.
Liking Buffalo +3, although it might be a good idea to wait and see if the line stretches to 3.5.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
