NFL Week 7 “Insider Betting”
Week 7 of the NFL season brings us some tantalizing match ups. The majority of the NFL’s power would appear to reside in the NFC as the Cowboys and Eagles sit with identical 5-1 records.
The Arizona Cardinals are 4-1, while NFC West division rivals San Francisco and Seattle are at 4-2 and 3-2 respectively. Over in the AFC it looks to be a two horse race between Denver and San Diego, but the New England Patriots have come on strong with three straight wins to sit atop the AFC Easy (East) at 5-2.
Sunday’s games feature what may at first appear to be sure things, but appearances can be deceiving. In this section we’ll take a look at some games you should be playing to pad that bank roll.
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Let’s get into these five games that have my attention.
Atlanta vs Baltimore
Week 7 NFL Odds Ravens -6.5
Ravens by a TD? Yes please. Atlanta looked absolutely awful last week against the Bears where they could muster just 13 points in the comforts of their dome. The Ravens offense was on fire last week, with QB Joe Flacco tossing five TDs in a rout of the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I know I know, it’s hard to qualify the Ravens’ offense as dominant considering the Bucs can’t stop anyone, but they’re at home this week, which means the game will be played outdoors.
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Why is this relevant? The Falcons have not won a game outdoors since November 2012. The Falcons certainly won’t be getting their first win outdoors this week and I don’t really expect them to even keep this one close.
NFL Week 7 Pick: Baltimore righted the ship after their offense was stifled by the Colts two weeks ago by busting out in a big way, while the Falcons are reeling and have dropped three straight games. Take the Ravens to cover.
Miami vs Chicago
Week 7 NFL Odds Bears -3
This is going to be a close one that I think will be decided by a field goal or less, so that pretty much gives away what the pick is for this one. The Bears have not been good at Soldier Field this year (0-2). Miami hung tough with Green Bay last week and had a win snatched from them by Aaron Rodgers in the game’s dying seconds.
Green Bay is a much better team than Chicago, and the Bears’ defense has been shaky at best for much of this season.
The Dolphins boast a pretty fearsome pass rush in Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon and Bears’ QB Jay Cutler struggles when he’s under duress. Look for the Phins’ D to keep this one close by harassing Cutler all day and likely forcing a turnover or two.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Chicago’s struggles at home will continue, whether they lose this one outright is kind of a coin toss right now but I don’t see them blowing Miami out the way they did to Atlanta last week. Take the Dolphins.
Carolina vs Green Bay
Week 7 NFL Odds Packers -6.5
As just mentioned above, the Packers by all accounts could be at .500 if not for that Rodgers guy playing QB. The Pack squeaked one out late against the Dolphins last week and play a much more potent offense in the Carolina Panthers on Sunday at Lambeau.
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Cam Newton finally busted out last week and looked like the Newton we’ve come to know, putting the Panthers on his back and earning his team a 37-37 tie at Cinci.
For perspective sake, the Bengals were a perfect 10-0 at home dating back to last season and the Panthers nearly walked in and stole one from them, and are still the only team in over a year to go into the Bengal’s barn and come away without a tick in the loss column.
Week 7 NFL Pick: The Packers have been vulnerable on defense this year and Newton has the Panthers’ offense rolling, racking up 31 and 37 points in their last two games. That touchdown spread for the Packers just looks too big and I’d stick with Carolina in this one.
Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
Week 7 NFL Odds Colts -3
This is the most interesting match up of the week in my opinion as it features two teams that are right at the top of that second tier in the AFC (below the top teams like Denver, San Diego and recently New England).
Both the Colts and Bengals have the potential to be 11 or 12 win teams, but to do so you’ve got to beat teams at your own calibre at one point or another. This is a show-me game for both teams. The Colts have been rolling over pretty average opponents (Baltimore aside) during their current four game win streak.
Baltimore stays in that category of only relevant victory for the Bengals whose other two victories came against the Titans and Falcons.
Week 7 NFL Pick: This is a really tough one to call as the Bengals hung up 37 last week even without top receiver AJ Green in the lineup. The Colts have been rolling but looked a bit shaky against the Texans last week, letting big leads get away from them time and again.
Without a win in two weeks, I think the Bengals are due, and the Colts’ seem due for a game to bring them back to earth after a four game win streak. Take Cinci who can probably win this one outright.
New York Giants vs Dallas
Week 7 NFL Odds Cowboys -6.5
Well what was formerly called the NFC Least seems to have returned to the status of NFC Beast, boasting two 5-1 teams (Cowboys & Eagles) and the 3-3 Giants who are still hanging around after looking awful following an 0-2 start to the season.
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This for me is a tailor made trap game for the Cowboys. They’re getting a ticked off Giants team who were embarrassed at the hands of another division rival in Philadelphia by a 27-0 score a week ago. The Cowboys on the other hand are riding high after a huge victory in Seattle, where no one but the Seahawks are supposed to win.
One team has a chip on their shoulder, the other is feeling invincible, this has all the makings of an upset.
NFL Week 7 Pick: Ok, I know I just said it has the makings of an upset, but by my gut I don’t think the Giants win this game without Victor Cruz.
That being said though, the Giants will keep this one close. With division match ups like this you have to throw away current standing because they always get up to play one another.
Over the past three seasons these teams have split their six games at three wins a piece and over those six the Giants have outscored the Cowboys 166-156. I like the G-Men to keep this one close.
Check out our Updated NFL Week 7 Odds.
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