Venue/ Stadium: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
The Saints (2-1) are the highest scoring team in the league and while the Jaguars (1-2) rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game they do have a solid defense. NFL lines have the Saints as 6.5-point away favorites with a total of 44.5
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, October 2, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: Saints -315 / Jaguars +265
Spread (ATS): Saints -6.5
Over/Under: 44.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
In their last games the Saints beat the Houston Texans 40-33 and the Jags lost a less than exciting 16-10 game to the Carolina Panthers.
The Jags’ pass defense ranks 7th in the league and they will have their hands full trying to contain Drew Brees, who has an even better WR corps this week with the return of Marques Colston. After Carolina rookie QB Cam Newton passed for over 400 yards in his first 2 games the Jags held him to 158 passing yards last week and they will have to keep Brees from having a huge game, as the Jags are the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league and will lose if they have to get in a shootout.
The Saints’ rushing offense ranks 14th in the league and while Pierre Thomas has played well highly regarded rookie Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. The run is important for the Saints, but the Jags’ defense has to key on Brees this Sunday.
Blaine Gabbert got his first every NFL start last week and he was decent going 12/21 for 139 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He is not yet at a place where he can carry the Jags with his arm and for Jacksonville to win he will need a lot of help from RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who is also the team’s 2nd leading receiver. Jones-Drew has the 3rd most rushing yards in the league and in a soggy and rainy game last week he rushed for 122 yards. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Saints’ defense has been great against the run, ranking 9th in the league, but weak against the pass ranking 27th. However, in 2 of their first 3 games the Saints have faced great passing offenses of the Packers and the Texans. Their run D is more important in this game, as if they can contain Jones-Drew they will be going back to the Big Easy with a win.
Even though the Saints got some good news with the return of Colston the players of OL Zach Strief and OL Olin Kreutz, LB Jonathan Vilma, and CB Tracy Porter are all questionable for this non-conference match up.
New Orleans at Jacksonville Betting Trends
New Orleans is 2-1 ATS on the season with an O/U record of 2-1 and Jacksonville is at 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 0-3.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points, and has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Jason’s Pick: Are you kidding the red-hot Saints only giving 6.5 points against a Jags’ team that has a rookie QB and is really struggling to score points? Take the Saints to easily win and cover and I think the total may go Over with the offense the Saints have.
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