NFL Week 17 – Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview
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Sunday Football – Dolphins at Patriots Matchup
Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2 — 1 p.m.
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
Dolphins vs. Patriots lines
MoneyLine: Dolphins +180 / Patriots -210
Spread: Patriots -4
Over/Under: 43.5
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Preview
Change is coming to Miami. No one is certain whether it will be as small as the firing of offensive coordinator Dan Henning or as large as the banishment of coach Tony Sparano and quarterback Chad Henne. But change is indeed on the way for a franchise that both raised hopes and dashed them in the same season. Reports out of Miami indicate that barring a blowout loss in Foxboro on Sunday against the nothing-to-gain Patriots, Sparano’s job was saved when special assistant Bill Parcells interceded on the coach’s behalf this week.
Henne’s future is another thing. Not too long ago he was The Answer in south Florida, but he has been unable to put together even back-to-back solid games and he appears to be at the top of the list of players that the team is ready to jettison. Right now Henne is the fourth-best quarterback in the AFC East, and with Tom Brady in his prime and Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick seemingly ready to come into theirs, there’s not much oxygen for Henne. The Dolphins front office is divided on him, but no one thinks he has a tremendous upside.
Henne’s departure could be just the beginning. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, whose so-so seasons didn’t exactly make things easy for Henne, are both free agents and neither is 100 percent confident of returning. And there are 10 other free agents who may or may not find their way back on the roster as the front office figures out just how deep the cuts will go as it tries to put together a team that can compete in the division.
In New England, the only concerns now are keeping everyone healthy for the playoffs. As if the team wasn’t aware of it, the media is reminding fans that last January Wes Welker suffered a torn ACL playing in a meaningless game, and the Patriots never seemed to recover, getting crushed by the Ravens in the playoffs the next week. So how much will the big guns play on Sunday? Bill Belichick would sooner give up the 4-digit code to his ATM than divulge that information.
Betting Trends:
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games at home
Pick: Belichick says he values only one statistic – victories. And if he has to sacrifice a victory on Sunday for the greater good of a playoff win two weeks from then, so be it. New England is undefeated at home this season, but that streak is in jeopardy now. The Pats retain the No. 1 overall seed throughout the AFC playoffs no matter what happens, so the thinking here is that the Pats play this as a glorified exhibition game. Brady plays a half, NE runs a ground-oriented offense that includes a few passes in which Brady does not take deep drops, and the Dolphins – playing hard to preserve their jobs — steal one.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
