NFL Week 16 – New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview
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Sunday Football – Patriots at Bills Matchup
Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26 – 1 p.m.
Venue: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y.
Patriots vs. Bills lines
MoneyLine: Bills +310 / Patriots -380
Spread: Patriots -9
Over/Under: 44
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Preview
Are the New England Patriots headed to the Super Bowl again?
Truth be told, there are probably four other teams in the AFC besides New England capable of surviving the AFC tournament and getting to Dallas in early February. But the Pats have several advantages as they proceed to clean things up in the regular season with games against division also-rans Buffalo and Miami.
1. Tom Brady runs an efficient, no-mistakes offense that never turns over the ball. Brady is at the top of his game and has absolutely no problem nickel-and-diming defenses to death with short passes to the likes of Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Danny Woodhead. The clock is eaten up and defenses can spend 8 or 9 minutes trying to figure out where the ball is going.
2. Bill Belichick is clearly the best coach in the league, perhaps the best coach the league has ever seen. There is no better at dealing with distractions (Randy Moss) and he has no tolerance for anyone not pointing in the same direction as he is. Occasionally he will outcoach himself (4th-and-2 last year at Indy), but no one else can outcoach him.
3. Assuming the Patriots don’t get upset both this Sunday and next week (home vs. Dolphins), any team that plans to knock off the Patriots will have to do so in Foxboro. It can be done (Ravens last season), but it’s not easy. Since Brady returned after tearing up his knee in 2007, New England has lost exactly zero home games in the regular season.
It all adds up to one difficult assignment for the Steelers, Colts, Ravens or Jets as they try to deny New England another return to the Super Bowl. And those teams have one more thing in common – they have all lost to Belichick, Brady and the Patriots this season.
Betting Trends:
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo’s last 12 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Buffalo’s last 23 games when playing New England
If the Patriots have an Achilles heel it’s on the defensive side of the ball. The Pats will take care of that in the draft, but for now it’s a struggle.
Anxious to protect its young linebackers and secondary, the Patriots play mostly zone and flood the secondary. This gives quarterbacks time to pick out receivers but not a lot of opportunities for big-yardage plays.
Buffalo (4 wins in its last 6) should move the ball and score enough to keep things close. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well enough to earn the starting job for next year and will give NE some problems.
If there’s significant wind, this game could be in the low 30s.
Picks: Bills +9
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
