Categories
NFL

Week 11 NFL Betting: 5 Games’ Football Odds You Have To Bet On

NFL Week 11 “Insider Betting”

Welcome to week 11 NFL fans. Hopefully I can get back on track this week after a pretty poor showing of 2-3 in this feature a week ago (who knew the Jets would beat the Steelers?)

But that’s in the past now and it’s time to start looking forward to this week’s can’t miss games. There’s some intriguing match ups around the league this week with big implications for the teams involved. What this means is that there’s some tough picks this week as some quality teams will be losing games.

I won’t bore you with too much preamble so let’s just get right into the games that have my attention this week.

As always keep checking in with Cappers Picks. We’ll be providing 4* free plays on the blog all season long, and check out our EXPERTS for guaranteed premium football plays!

***2014 BONUSES***
[dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

Detroit vs Arizona

Week 11 NFL Odds Cardinals -1

With just a one point spread in this one it’s essentially a pick’em. These are two of the top teams in the NFC and the Cardinals sport the NFL’s best record at 8-1. I think the gravy train comes to a halt this week for the Cards though as the Lions are the first legitimate opponent they’ve had in weeks. Arizona beat Cowboys team without Tony Romo, and pulled out a late win over the Eagles three weeks ago, and that’s about the only impressive win they’ve had in the last five weeks.

[dfads params=’groups=63753&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

Detroit boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL and they will be up against Matt Stafford’s former backup QB Drew Stanton. With that little bit of an inside edge and extra knowledge on their opposing QB the Lions are going to make it a long day for Stanton who will be at the helm for the remainder of the season for Arizona with Carson Palmer out with a knee injury.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Detroit’s defense will keep the Cardinals offense frustrated and with receiver Calvin Johnson in his second week back from injury he’ll be a handful. I like Detroit to win this one.

Minnesota vs Chicago

Week 11 NFL Odds Bears -2.5

How bad is Minnesota really? The Bears have not won a game at Soldier Field since Week 14 of last season, but they come into this one as the favourite, what a slap in the face of the Vikings.

Minnesota is also riding a two game win streak AND at 4-5 they’re ahead of their NFC North opponents Chicago who are 3-6 and have given up 50+ points in their last two games.

The Vikings do not boast the same kind of offense or QB for that matter that the Patriots and Packers do (the teams that scored over 50 on Chicago), but they’re not exactly a slouch themselves. Take a quick glance at who Minnesota’s losses have come to: New England, New Orleans, Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo. The Saints at 4-5 are the only sub .500 team that the Vikings have lost to, and that was in the Superdome, the same place where the Saints destroyed Green Bay.

Week 11 NFL Pick: The Bears have been awful at home, how they’re favoured against a team ahead of them in their division is a bit of a head scratcher. I’m going with the Vikings in this game.

Denver vs St. Louis

Week 11 NFL Odds Broncos -9.5

Here’s another team not getting much respect, the Rams. Now don’t get me wrong, the Broncos are among the top and are arguably one of the best teams in the NFL, but this is a Rams team that has beaten both San Francisco and Seattle this year and were hanging right in with Arizona last week until QB Austin Davis put 14 points on the board for the Cardinals with a pick six and fumble for another touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Yep, that’s correct, the Rams actually led 14-10 over Arizona after three quarters and gave up 21 points in under four minutes to eventually lose 31-14.

With all that said however, Denver just steamrolls teams. Basically if you think Denver is going to win this one, take them to cover. The Broncos are almost getting boring to watch unless they’re playing New England. It’s the same story week in and week out; Peyton Manning will throw three or four touchdowns, the defense will get a few takeaways and the game is essentially over before the fourth quarter.

[dfads params=’groups=66501&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

In their last five victories the Broncos have won by margins of 21, 14, 25, 14 and 24 points.

Week 11 NFL Pick: How can you go against Peyton Manning, unless the other team’s QB is Tom Brady of course. That loss to New England two weeks ago was a big wake up call for the Broncos and I think they’re hell bent to just destroy everyone in their path from here on out. Take Denver to crush the Rams.

Cincinnati vs New Orleans

Week 11 NFL Odds Saints -7

This game kind of jumped off the page for me when I first saw that seven point spread for the Saints. The Bengals were supposed to walk away with the AFC North this year pretty much uncontested. The operative words there are “supposed to”.

Cinci instead finds themselves in second place in the tightest division in the NFL and only a half game back, but also a loss away from being dead last in the division. The Saints are in first in the NFC South, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise given Carolina’s  regression, the Falcons struggling to get out of first gear and Tampa being Tampa, but the Saints are on top of that division with a losing record (4-5).

Week 11 NFL Pick: The Bengals were beaten thoroughly by the Browns their last time out, but that was all the way back on Thursday night of week 10. Cinci should be well rested and ready to right the ship.

[dfads params=’groups=63752&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

I’m not 100% sold that they’ll beat the Saints outright, but they’ll keep it close. Take Cincinnati.

Seattle vs Kansas City

Week 11 NFL Odds PK

I’ve thrown a lot of games in this section with one and one and half point spreads which are basically pick’ems but I think this is the first time that I’ve had a game that is actually listed as a pick’em.

Hard to say if that lack of a spread is a nod to Kansas City or a knock on Seattle. The Chiefs are very good at home and have quietly strung four wins in a row together. The Seahawks are not very good on the road at 2-2 with losses to the Rams (yuck) and another member of the AFC West the San Diego Chargers.

Heat was a big factor when the Seahawks visited the Chargers early in the season, but it won’t be a problem in KC this week as the forecast is calling for temps just above freezing. Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is a bit banged up and is listed as questionable for this one but I’d expect him to play as he’s missed just one game to injury in the last five years.

Week 11 NFL Pick: My gut is just begging me to go with the Chiefs in this one and I think I’ve got to stick with it. QB Alex Smith’s conservative approach limits turnovers and should keep the Seahawks’ secondary from making much of an impact. On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs have the best pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards, allowing just 208 yards per game. I like Kansas City to take this one.

Check out our Updated NFL Week 11 Odds.

[dfads params=’groups=63706&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]

By Matt Durnan

A (self-proclaimed) fantasy sports guru since 2004 and a journalist since 2007. He has been offering unsolicited sports gambling advice to his circle of friends for years and has now put himself at the mercy of online readers everywhere. "It's not whether you win or lose, it's how much fun you have"... His hockey coach told him that when he was 7. His team lost every game that year.