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Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Week 7 Preview & Free Pick

NFL Handicapping – Titans vs Bills Betting Spread / Matchup

Venue/ Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, October 21, 2012
NFL Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Titans +105 / Bills -125
Spread: Bills -3
Over/Under:  46.5  

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills (3-3) are coming off a win, which snapped their 2-game losing streak. To say there is a log jam atop the NFC East is an understatement since every team in the division is 3-3. The Titans (2-4) are coming off an upset win over the Steelers, which may have saved their season, but they still are a few games behind the Houston Texans (5-1), who are running away with the AFC South. NFL lines have the Bills as 3-point home favorites with a total of 46.5.

On the season the Titans are 2-4 ATS with an Over/Under record of 4-2 and the Bills are 3-3 ATS with an Over/Under record of 4-2.

In their last games the Titans beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-23 and the Bills beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-16 in OT.

Matt Hasselbeck will be making his 3rd start for the injured Jake Locker and in the Steelers’ game he passed for 290 yards. While the Bills’ pass D is decent they have no wins this season against teams with a good aerial attack.

In the Steelers game Titans’ RB Chris Johnson rushed for 91 yards, but he is still only averaging 3.3 yards per carry and Tennessee has the worst rushing offense in the league. However, Johnson may have another good game since the Bills’ rushing defense ranks dead last in the NFL. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been decent this season and he has a couple of solid WR’s in Steve Johnson and Scott Chandler, but it is key that he avoids the turnover. He only has 2 INT in his last 2 games and this is after getting picked off 4 times in the Bills blowout loss to the Patriots a few weeks back. The Titans’ pass defense only ranks 29th in the league and they have a weak pass rush with only 8 sacks on the season.

The key to the Bills winning is their rushing game led by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, who each scored in the win over Arizona and combined for 141 rushing yards. The Titans’ run D ranks 22nd in the league, but they stuffed the run last week. However, in their previous 2 losses, which were both blowouts, facing the good rushing teams of Houston and Minnesota they gave up a lot of yards on the ground.

The Titans have won 4 straight against the Bills.

In some betting trends for this AFC match up the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 home games.

Jason’s Pick: I have to go with the Titans in this one, as I think Johnson will have another good game and they will win a close low scoring affair.


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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.