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Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco NFL Preview: Week 11 Free Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 11 NFL Gambling & Free Predictions

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Week 11: Buccaneers at 49ers Preview & Pick
GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR NFL ATS STATS —>
Date: Sunday, November 21, 2010
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Broadcast: FOX
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Buccaneers +160, 49ers -190
Spread: 49ers -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Bet now @ BetUs.com!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

I never thought I’d say it, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting to make a believer out of me. They’ve won three of four and, in the only loss over that span, they pushed the Falcons very hard in Atlanta. Josh Freeman looks like a legit MVP candidate so far; he has 12 touchdown passes versus five interceptions this season. He also recorded the best passer rating of his career last week against an above-average Carolina pass defense after throwing for 241 yards with two touchdown passes and no picks.

Freeman embodies a Tampa team that seems to excel in close games. Of his nine career wins, six were punctuated by fourth-quarter comebacks. Slowly but surely, the support system around him is growing, Arrelious Benn and especially Mike Williams are ahead of the curve as rookie wideouts. Bruising runner LeGarrette Blount seems poised to take over featured back role down the stretch if he hasn’t already. The Oregon product has gashed opponents for 329 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his last four games. Cadillac who?

The Bucs’ “D” remains a work in progress – it ranks 31st against the run – but Tampa has done a good job defending the pass, ranking eight in the league. Aqib Talib is emerging as an elite defensive back; he leads the team with five picks.

San Francisco 49ers (3-6)

The 49ers have also won three of their last four games and are creeping back into the wide-open NFC West race. The catalyst has been Troy Smith. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner turned backup quarterback got his chance to start when Alex Smith got hurt and it doesn’t look like Troy will give the job back.

In his two starts, Troy Smith has led the 49ers to two victories. And it’s not like he’s just playing game manager. Smith has thrown for 552 yards over that span with no turnovers. Like Freeman, he’s showing a knack for clutch performances, having led fourth-quarter scoring drives in both games.

Led by ultra-talented and physical linebacker Patrick Willis, San Francisco’s “D” has really turned around during its surge. Over the last four games, the 49ers have held opponents to 322 total yards and 17 points per contest.

The pick:

This feels like an unstoppable-force-meets-immovable-object matchup. Both teams have a ton of momentum. Something has to give.

On one hand, San Francisco has a lot going for it.  Bellcow running back Frank Gore should stomp on Tampa’s Swiss-Cheese run defense. Also, Tampa Bay hasn’t won a game at San Francisco in 30 years.

On the other, it doesn’t feel right betting against Freeman these days. I know Troy Smith has shown a lot in his two starts – but I’d like to see him do it longer before anointing him as San Francisco’s savior. If the 49ers can’t stop Freeman and Blount, they’ll fall behind. Gore will become less of a factor and Smith may have to air it out. That could be problematic against a Tampa team tied for second in the NFL with 14 interceptions.

I’d expect an extremely close, hard-fought game, probably decided by a field goal. But I’ll go with Josh “Big Game” Freeman to help Tampa end its drought in the City by the Bay.

Betting Trends:

Under is 9-3 in TB last 12 vs. NFC.
TB are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
Under is 8-3 in TB last 11 games on grass.
SF are 10-3-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Buccaneers vs 49ers prediction: Buccaneers 24, 49ers 21

Money Line: Buccaneers +160
Spread: Buccaneers +3
Over/Under: OVER 41.5

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About Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.


Comments

Comments

  1. HuskersBusker41 says:

    I agree with and love the pick. I also think that Arrelious Benn is going to continue to emerge as a very good deep threat in the NFL. He was always a bit of a wing-nut but you could see he had/has the talent from Day One.

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