Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) at New Orleans Saints (13-1)
Week 16 Sunday December 27, 2009 1 PM EST
The Line: New Orleans – 14
The New Orleans Saints try and rebound from their first loss of the season while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try and feed off the momentum of their victory a week ago as the two meet in the Super Dome.
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New Orleans finally lost for the first time last week as Dallas went into the Super Dome and got out early on the saints and never looked back. The Saints mounted a comeback but the bounces just didn’t go their way and the result was the first blemish on their record for this season. The Saints had won every way possible and once again we saw why it is so hard to have an undefeated regular season in the NFL and why so many teams have had the opportunity to do so and so few have actually got it done. It takes talent but it also takes a lot fo luck and this time around it was the Saints dropping wide open touch downs and allowing big scores at the end. New Orleans has nothing to hang their head about and they don’t have time to neither as the playoffs start in just a few eeks and the Saints have to be at least one of the favorites to come out of the NFC. Drew Brees is having a monster year which is allowing everyone else on the offense to have a big year as well. Defensively, this is the best unit the Saints have had in their history and the suring up of the secondary has paid huge and immediate dividends.
Tampa Bay got a win last week in a game where they took one of the longest road trips in the NFL this season. The Buccaneers went into Seattle and absolutely pounded the Seahawks. Josh Freeman looked at home and played well within himself hitting tight end Kellen Winslow early and often and throwing underneath to the running back for scores. Tampa Bay was behind early but never gave up as they were even trailing at the half. We had seen some flashes from this Buc team this season but we had also seen them tail off as of late and thought there was no way this young, rebuilding team could handle the long raid trip to the Northwest. 
Tampa has a lot of growing to do and we’ll continue to see inconsistency as this growth continues but this team also has renewed confidence and nothing to lose which makes them a scary team.
New Orleans is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as a home favorite but they are just 1-4 against the spread against the NFC South and 1-4 against the spread following a non cover. Tampa Bay has covered four in a row in road games against a team with a winning home record and they are only 1-5 against the spread following a cover.
This is a lot of points for an NFL game but I think it’s important for the Saints to come out and regain their confidence. Tampa isn’t going to just lay down and they are feeling confident following their win a week ago but they simply don’t match up with this year’s Saints team and as muich as I don’t like laying two touchdowns, I’m inclined to do it here.
Mitch’s Pick: New Orleans Saints – 14
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