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ATS Pick: St. Louis vs. Tennessee (Wk 14)

St. Louis Rams (1-11) at Tennessee Titans (5-7)

Mitch Wilson

Mitch Wilson

NFL Football: Sunday December 13, 2009 4:05 PM EST
The Line: Tennessee Titans -13

The Tennessee Titans look to start a new winning streak as they play host to the St. Louis Rams in Nashville.

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Tennessee’s five game winning streak ended last week with a tough loss to Indianapolis but the way the AFC is shaking out, the Titans may not be done yet as far as playoff hopes. Vince Young has energized Tennessee who had one of their worst starts in recent franchise history. While the Titans didn’t seem to have their best game last week, they never gave up and weren’t outplayed. What it came down to was Tennessee didn’t convert on opportunities not just inside the red zone but inside the five yard line as they came up empty on two separate occasions which was the difference in the football game. Once again Chris Johnson ran for over 100 yards and Vince Young distributed the ball to seven different receivers. The defense contained the Colts but didn’t get to Manning for a sack and didn’t get any interceptions. The Titans should be focused this week as they know that one more loss would mean the end of the meaningful part of their season.

Of all of the bad teams in the NFL this year, and there seems to be an inordinate amount of teams with very few wins, the Rams losses seem to be by fewer points than most. This is little consolation for a team that started this decade as the greatest show on turf as they are now resigned to being a team who should have pretty good positioning in the next NFL draft. The Rams offense is just one dimensional with Steven Jackson being the primary option. Despite the Rams as a team lack of success, Jackson is having a one of his best years as a pro and is simply dominating, literally carrying the Rams offense on his back. The Rams offense has been mixing it up coming out with some three tight end sets and then sometimes utilizing their young corps of wide receivers.

Defensively, St. Louis has taken some big hits in the injury department including Adam Carriker who is out for the season. Overall the defense allows 26.2 points per game which when looking at their offense which averages just over 11 points per game, it’s no wonder why they are struggling.

Tennessee is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games that they have been favorites of 10 1/2 or more but they are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite. St. Louis is 4-1 against the spread in their lst five games as a road underdog but just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 or more.

The Titans are back to playing the level we expected of them to start the season but it may just be too late for them this year. St. Louis isn’t a good team and to seem them getting blown out wouldn’t surprise anyone but the thing is, they just don’t seem to get blown out often, especially not lately. The Rams have a solid running game and can play defense and that alone seems to be a long term good formula to keep teams in football games.

Mitch’s Pick: St. Louis Rams + 13

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