NFL Preseason Week 4 Picks
Just as Week 1 is tough to handicap in NFL preseason betting, so is Week 4. Many of the camp battles have been worked out, yeah, but which starters will play and which ones will rest?
I’ll do my best to pick games that provide value and a decent chance of educated picks. 
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 1, 7:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Bengals -4
The Colts have solidly established themselves as a disaster this preseason, with no Peyton Manning and a slew of horrible backup quarterbacks playing in his place as he desperately tries to recover from neck surgery in team for Week 1. This week, don’t be surprised if the Colts dust off Kerry Collins and give him some snaps.
It’ll also be interesting to see how much action Delone Carter gets. If he plays a ton, maybe it’ll mean he’s still third on the depth chart at tailback behind Donald Brown and Joseph Addai. If he rests, maybe it means Indy already has big plans for him.
The Bengals seem like a decent bet to cover because they should field some key starters at skill positions. They probably want Andy Dalton to get as many reps as possible under center before the preseason is up; same goes for wideout A.J. Green. After an ugly debut, Dalton got his dink-and-dunk working for him against Carolina last week, so maybe he’ll keep it going on Thursday.
Pick: Bengals -4
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers
Thursday, September 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Panthers -2.5
Yeah, Ben Roethlisberger probably won’t play in this one, but bettors should look deeper here. Rookie Andy Dalton carved up Carolina’s defense last week. The Panthers’ pass “D” looks like it may be among the league’s worst. If a weak-armed rookie can embarrass them, maybe a vet like Charlie Batch or an athlete like Dennis Dixon can do even more damage. Both guys will be playing hard as they battle for the top backup quarterback job.
Meanwhile, even though he’s been dynamic with his feet, Cam Newton has been pretty awful as a thrower this preseason. Even if he’s facing Steeler backups, he’ll have his hands full. I like a Pittsburgh “upset.” [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, September 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
NFL Betting favorite: Vikings -3.5
It certainly looks like the Houston Texans will have one of the NFL’s top offenses this season, with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster and Owen Daniels leading the charge. Better yet, the Texans may have an embarrassment of riches at their backup skill positions.
We already knew Matt Leinart was a capable backup; he confirmed that with a 7/10, 69-yard effort in limited duty last week. But reports out of Houston suggest the Texans are also quite high on Taylor “T.J.” Yates, whom they drafted out of North Carolina. He and Leinart may play a half each on Thursday. In preseason Week 4 betting, I like to seek out the competition. Who has a real motivation to play hard? Both of Houston’s backup quarterbacks do.
Same goes for runners Ben Tate and Derrick Ward, who are fighting to back up Arian Foster. This is a particularly important preseason battle because Foster’s hamstring could keep him out of Week 1. Tate in particular has impressed this preseason.
The Texans backups will treat Thursday like a playoff game and may take half their snaps against Minnesota’s backup defenders, so I like Houston to pull off the road win.
Pick: Texans +3.5
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