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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Gambling Prediction & AFC Divisional Preview

Colts vs Patriots NFL Football Spread/Handicapping

The Colts win over the Chiefs last week was one of the most exciting playoff games I can recall. Their reward is a trip to Foxboro to try and tame a Patriots team that seems to surprise when it loses though I am not really sure how it wins.

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)
Saturday January 11
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Moneyline: New England -295, Indianapolis +265
Spread: New England -7
O/U: 51

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Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady makes for some sexy headlines but if the Pats get their way they will look to take the pressure off Brady while it all rests on Luck’s shoulders for the Colts.


With the Colts winning last week, coming back they way they did and making the plays they did they have a little bit of that team of destiny look. This week will be interesting but if they can get by they likely would be facing Denver, a team they beat (at home) earlier in the season (even more interesting).
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The Colts want to be balanced but their inability to run the ball puts a lot on the shoulders of their QB. With Reggie Wayne on IR the connection between Luck and T.Y Hilton has become fantastic. Hilton had a game for the ages last week which has to make you believe that New England is going to force Luck to be looking elsewhere at least some of the time this week. I think that spells a huge game for TE Coby Fleener.

However, it may all be for not if the Colts are not better on defense. They made Alex Smith look like Tom Brady last week and this week they will be facing the real deal. They need to tighten up the rush defense too because NE is good at that this year too.

New England

The Patriots are always good but this is hardly the best team they have had during their recent run of success, in fact it might be the worst. Still they didn’t lose a home game this season and are more balanced on offense than any version of the Patriots that I can remember.

The best thing New England has going for them is that they know Brady won’t flinch in tight spots. More than half of their victories were by 7 or fewer points this season with some of those of the impressive comeback variety. This team is more reliant on their runners than ever before but they have enough to get it done against a weak Colts defense.

Their own defense gives up a bunch of yards but is sting on points. The Colts will put them to the test and with Luck’s ability to convert it won’t be so easy to hold them at bay this weekend.

Spread Pick: Indianapolis +7
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Indianapolis 34 – New England 28


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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.