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Patriots vs. Broncos Gambling Prediction & AFC Championship Preview

New England vs. Denver Football Spread/Handicapping

Well here we go again with Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning and the Patriots vs. Broncos for a trip to the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots (13-4) vs Denver Broncos (14-3)
Sunday January 19
Sports Authority Field @ Mile High – Denver, CO
3:00PM
Moneyline: Denver -225, New Engand +205
Spread: Denver -5
O/U: 55
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It is well documented that the Brady and the Patriots have dominated when these two hall of famer signal callers go head to head but that is in terms of wins and losses – a lot of those games have been close just like the one earlier this season when the Pats came back to force overtime and then win it.

New England

Last week the Patriots said not yet to super soph QB Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Now they get their familiar foe in Peyton Manning which I guess is fitting.

The weird thing about this New England team is that they are not relying on Tom Brady nearly as much as you would expect…yet they are still winning. Last week they actually rushed for more yards than they passed and I can’t remember that ever happening before. Against Denver on Sunday that is a smart strategy to employ again as the Broncos are hardly fearsome on defense despite what we saw against San Diego, who they held in check for most of the game last week.
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When the Patriots beat the Broncos during the regular season they gave up 31 points and allowed a huge rushing day to Knowshon Moreno (more than 200 yards). On the road I don’t think they can afford to do so again or their season will end this week.

Denver

You can bet that for the Denver Broncos, and Peyton Manning, it just wouldn’t have been complete to make it to the Super Bowl without having to beat the Patriots. They could have had more confidence heading into this one if they had closed out their regular season matchup against them but there is no doubt in my mind that they Broncos are the better team.

I don’t want to argue whether Manning is better than Brady but there is no argument that Manning has the better collection of weapons at his disposal. As a result, I think the key will be not getting too cute with what he is trying to do – something I think he is guilty of from time to time. The Denver defense is oft maligned but as long as they play things straight and don’t give up big plays like the 70 yard TD run by Legarrette Blount ripped off last week against the Colts than they should be good enough to win and advance.

There is a small chance this one gets out of hand like we saw in the first half the first time these teams met.

Spread Pick: Denver -5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Denver 35 – New England 24

By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.