NFL Betting – Week 6 Picks
For the second straight week, the odds have nailed us with some stressful, big spreads. Feels like almost every line is at least a touchdown. Still, there has to be value in here somewhere. Let’s see what I can dig up.
NFL Betting – Week 5 Picks
WEEK 5 ATS PICKS RECORD: 2-2
SEASON ATS PICKS RECORD: 17-9
Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants
Sunday, October 16, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Giants -3
I think it’s between Bills/Giants and Panthers/Falcons for the highest-scoring game of Week 6. We should expect fireworks at the Meadowlands.
The Bills continue to be one of the NFL’s most surprising, interesting stories this season and they’re doing it with offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to look competent in Chan Gailey’s system and Fred Jackson might be the NFL’s most underrated running back. However, even though Buffalo picked Michael Vick off four times last week, it still allowed 489 yards of offense. The Bills can’t defend; they rank 30th in the NFL overall, including 29th against the run.
Eli Manning, Ahmad Bradshaw and the Giants should thus be in for a big day. The Giants haven’t been great defensively either, ranking 20th in the NFL, but they’re not as bad as Buffalo and they’re at home. They can win by four or more points. Pick: Giants -3
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins
Sunday, October 16, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Eagles -1
Just as I keep picking against Buffalo, I can’t stop picking in Philadelphia’s favor. The Eagles have clearly established themselves as an atrocious defensive team, yes, but there’s nothing wrong with their explosive offense. The last time they faced Washington – at Washington – they shredded the Redskins for 59 points and 582 yards of offense. Mike Vick should have another field day.
Washington may succeed early on versus Philadelphia’s 30th-ranked run “D” but should eventually fall behind and be forced to pass. The Eagles are still a big-play defense and Rex Grossman specializes in making spectacular mistakes under center. Eagles should bounce back. Pick: Eagles -1
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 16, 4:05 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Ravens -7.5
The Ravens by more than a touchdown, even at home, gives me pause. We have to think through this one hard. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It’s true that Baltimore’s defense has been absolutely dominant at home, embarrassing the Steelers and Jets. But Houston is arguably better offensively than anyone the Ravens have faced so far. Even without Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub topped 400 passing yards last week.
On the flipside, Wade Phillips has transformed Houston’s “D” into the league’s No. 7 unit so far after it was an embarrassment last year. We’ll see if Houston can stay tough without Mario Williams, who was lost to a season-ending pectoral injury last week, but I believe in Phillips’ system. Joe Flacco hasn’t been himself for Baltimore of late, making some uncharacteristically bad throws.
I like Baltimore to win outright but Houston’s offense – and improved defense – should keep the margin to at least a touchdown. Pick: Texans +7.5
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 16, 4:15 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Saints -4.5
Yes, New Orleans got burned against the spread taking on Carolina last week. And, yes, Josh Freeman sometimes has that “hero factor” to lead a team downfield just like Cam Newton does.
However, no one has stopped Newton whereas plenty of teams have made Tampa’s offense look ordinary this season. The Bucs may be seriously lacking confidence after San Francisco humiliated them 48-3 last week.
Surprisingly, Carolina has been tougher on opposing quarterbacks than Tampa Bay has this season, so Drew Brees and the Saints may have an easier time this week. I seem them winning by, say, a touchdown and adding to the Bucs’ misery.
Pick: Saints -4.5
