Cappers Picks Weekly Handicapping Preview – Divisional Playoff Round Weekend
What a Wild Card Weekend! Nobody saw the Denver Broncos coming and if you did, congratulations! The weekend was just OK for my pocket book – those Broncos and the underwhelming Bengals let me down.
If you think that everything is back to normal as we head into the Divisional Round think again! Denver still lingers and the Houston Texans appear to be back on track after hanging 31 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.
So, let’s get to the picks in the Cappers Picks Weekly Handicapping Preview – Divisional Round. I hope that I can help you on your way to a profitable weekend!
Wild Card Weekend ATS PICKS RECORD: 2-2-0
SEASON ATS PICKS RECORD: 42-31-3
New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday, January 14, 4:30 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Saints -3 ½
There are two questions that have to be considered when handicapping this game. The first – Can San Francisco’s incredible defense slow down the juggernaut New Orleans offense? And – Can the average 49ers offense score enough to keep up with the Saints?
One reason that the 49ers can breathe easier is the fact that New Orleans scores an average of 14 points less on the road and outside than they do in the dome at home. The Saints played 11 times outdoors this season and averaged just 23.8 points – far below the 41.1 points they averaged indoors.
San Francisco is 13-3-1 against the spread in their last 17 games, 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games against NFC teams, and 4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 8-0 against the spread as a favorite, 8-0 against the spread following a win, and 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games overall. New Orleans is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the Saints are the hottest team in the NFL – nobody is going to slow them down. It is true that the 49ers have allowed 10 total points in their last two games without Patrick Willis but this is the Saints we are talking about. Drew Brees will have his way against the 49ers 16th ranked pass defense. They may not score 41, but 28 will be enough against San Francisco’s average offense. I like the Saints by 7-10 points in this one.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3 ½
Denver at New England 8:00 PM
Saturday, January 14, 8:00 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Patriots -13 ½
There weren’t many that gave the Broncos a snowball’s chance on Sunday but in typical Tebow fashion, the team was able to weave a little magic and survive a late comeback bid by the Steelers. Now the Broncos get to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. The same questions apply for the Broncos as the 49ers – Can their defense slow down the juggernaut Patriots offense? And – Can the Broncos offense score enough to keep up with New England?
New England is 11-5 against the spread against the AFC, 0-6 against the spread in their last six playoff games, and 3-14 against the spread as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Denver is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall. Denver has covered in five of their last six trips to New England.
Give Denver’s offensive coordinator some credit – he had a masterful game plan against Pittsburgh! Tim Tebow threw for 316 yards on just 10 completions! Look, Tom Brady and the Patriots will win this game but look for the Denver offense to grind this game to a halt, take a few shots down field, keep Brady off the field and keep the game close.
It won’t be pretty and Denver won’t win but they will do enough to cover the 13 ½ points. They have some divine intervention working for them!
Pick: Denver Broncos to cover the 13 ½ points
Houston at Baltimore 1:00 PM
Sunday, January 15, 1:00 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Ravens -7 ½
The Houston Texans proved the old adage true on Saturday – if you run the ball effectively and you play good defense, good things will happen! In Houston’s case the good thing came in the form of their first ever playoff win in their first ever playoff game. Their reward – a rematch with the Baltimore Ravens, a team that is rested and a team that destroyed them earlier in the season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Ravens are 6-1 in their last seven games, but the Ravens are just 1-3-1 in their last five home games. The Ravens are 5-0 in their last five games overall against the Texans. The Texans are 8-3 in their last 11 games, although Houston is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the Ravens.
With Arian Foster and his offensive line playing at an extremely high level and with the presence of Andre Johnson, Houston has to be a team that is taken seriously. But Cinderella may have already struck for the Texans ahead of this game. I like the Ravens to win the game despite their recent struggles at home. But look for the Texans to keep this game closer than most would think. I will gladly take the Texans and the 7 ½ points. If the line moves lower, I may change my mind but as it sits, Houston should be able to cover the points.
Pick: Houston Texans +7 ½
NY Giants at Green Bay 4:30 PM
Sunday, January 15, 4:30 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Packers -8 ½
The final game of the Divisional Round Weekend brings us perhaps the most intriguing game – a rematch of a month ago in which the Packers engineered a last minute game-winning drive to remain undefeated at the time. The Giants hung tough in that game and appeared to have the blueprint for defeating the Packers – score often! The difference this time is that New York’s defensive Studs are healthy and ready to pressure Aaron Rodgers. And we all know how Mr. Rodgers hates the pressure!
Green Bay is 8-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 4-0 against the spread in their last four playoff games, and 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games against NFC teams. New York is 6-0 against the spread in their last six road playoff games, 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog, and 5-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The road team has covered in five of the last seven meetings of these two and the underdog has covered in four of the last five.
The Giants are confident, they are healthy and they are playing perhaps their best football of the season. The Giants defense has outstanding last week and should be motivated to put all the “haters” in their places. Betting against the Packers SU is suicide – they should win on Sunday. But, just like in December, this game will be close. 8 ½ points is way too rich for me! Take the Giants balanced attack and their solid defense to make a game of it. Packers win but the Giants cover!
Pick: New York Giants +8 ½
This is the Divisional Playoff weekend series of free NFL Pick articles by our experts here at CappersPicks.com. Check back with us all NFL Betting season long, and keep on winning those NFL Bets folks!
