New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts – Rematch of Week 16
Back in 2007 the Giants and Patriots squared off in one of the greatest games in Week 17 of all time. The Patriots walked out with a perfect regular season, but the Giants walked out with a blueprint on how to defeat one of the best teams the league had ever seen.
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Unfortunately for the New York Jets, they did not get the same privilege when they faced the Colts in Week 16 of the 2009 NFL regular season.
The Colts pulled their starters in the second half, raining hellfire on head coach Jim Caldwell from the Colts’ betting bandwagon for throwing the towel on a perfect season. Ironically, by doing so, the Colts gave the Jets the win and a chance to break in to the playoffs with a wild card spot. Maybe they weren’t scared of the Jets making the playoffs then, but after a stunning turn of events the Jets are now in the AFC Championship game.
The box score from that game is actually quite telling of how this game might turn out. Mark Sanchez went just 12-of-19 for 106 yards and failed to score a touchdown against the Indy defense. Thomas Jones had 23 carries for 105 yards and a score while Shonn Greene got the call 16 times and rumbled for 95 yards. The Jets were desperate to win the game, but they also needed two miracle plays to secure the victory. They certainly didn’t do it by standard merit.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
AFC Championship Betting Line: Indianapolis -7 ½ (39)
Before the Jets received a gift from Jim Caldwell, Peyton Manning was busy ripping them apart and moving the chains. Manning ended the game with 14-of-21 passing for 192 yards though he was held out of the endzone. Darrell Revis, who has become widely respected as the best shut down corner in the game, kept Reggie Wayne to just 3 receptions for 33 yards. Wayne was targeted seven times in this game. 
Brad Smith opened the third quarter with a 106 yard kickoff return to put the Jets up 10-9. The Colts answered back with a touchdown by Donald Brown, and maintained a 15-10 lead as the third quarter winded down. That’s when Indy’s backup quarterback Curtis Painter coughed up a costly fumble that was returned for a score by Marques Douglas. That put the Jet up for good.
The oddsmakers have more than doubled the spread of the previous matchup between these two for your AFC championship odds. The Jets enter this game with a spread of -7.5 and reduced the TOTAL to just 39.0 points. When you consider that the Jets beat a backup offensive line, and relied on a special teams touchdown to get the win, you can certainly understand why.
For the record, Peyton Manning didn’t get sacked in this game at all.
So what did we learn from the Week 16 matchup? That the Jets will need a lot of luck to win the AFC title game and cover the NFL playoff betting spread against the Colts. Remember that when a line looks too good to be true, it’s that way for a reason. Maybe I’m not telling you anything you needed to know, but if you’ve laid down cash on the line for the underdog Jets, you’re probably a lot more concerned than you were before.
Judging solely from what happened in Week 16, you and the Jets, should be.
I don’t see the Jets being able to put up more than 13 points and Peyton could put up more than that in a quarter.
The Pick is on Indianapolis at -7 ½
