Jaguars vs Falcons Week 15 Gambling Preview
If the season ended today the Falcons (8-5) would be tn the playoffs snagging one of the Wild Card berths, but they still have a shot to win the NFC South even though they trail the Saints, who they face in their next game, by 2 games in the division.
Venue/ Stadium: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Time/Date: 8:20 PM EST Thursday, December 15, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Jaguars +480 / Falcons -610
Spread (ATS): Falcons -11
Over/Under: 41.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Jags (4-9) will not be making the playoffs, but they are coming off a win behind another big game from the league’s leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew. NFL lines have the Falcons as 11-point favorites in this game with a total of 41.5.
In their last games the Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers 31-23 and the Jags beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-14.
The Falcons have a well-balanced offense ranking 10th in the league in passing yards per game and 18th in rushing yards per game. QB Matt Ryan played great this last Sunday in the win over Carolina passing for 320 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. The Jags and their solid 4th ranked pass defense will have their hands full in this game trying to contain the Falcons’ trio of WR’s Roddy White, Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez.
Jacksonville has a good secondary and they will likely not get much help from their pass rush, which only ranks 22nd in the league with 26 sacks.
Atlanta RB Michael Turner has been struggling lately, as in his last 3 games has failed to rush for over 80 yards and in all of those 3 games he did not average 4 yards per carry. He may get back on track in this game facing the Jags’ run defense that ranks 16th in the league. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
This game is a good match on D for the Falcons, as they only rank 22nd in the league defending the pass and 5th against the run. It is pretty easy for Atlanta in this game, as if they can keep Maurice Jones-Drew from having a big game they should easily win. He only averaged 3.1 yards per carry in the win over Tampa Bay, but he did rush for 85 yards with 2 TD and also caught 6 passes for 51 yards with 2 TD.
Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert had a decent game in the over Tampa Bay passing for 217 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT. He does not have a great WR corps and he needs to limit his mistakes in this game and not turn the ball over.
Betting Trends
This season the Jaguars are 5-7-1 ATS and they have an O/U record of 3-10 and the Falcons are 5-7-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-9.
The Jaguars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
The Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, and have an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Jason’s Pick: The Jags have been up and down this season and while they may not win this game they will cover the 11-point spread behind a good game from Jones-Drew.
