Thursday NFL Betting – Saints begin title defense against somewhat wobbly Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings return to the stadium where they lost the NFC Championship Game. It’s going to be a very emotional season opener in the Big Easy. Seven and a half months ago, the Minnesota Vikings were in field goal range, tied at 28-apiece with the New Orleans Saints at the end of regulation in the NFC Championship Game.
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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Venue: Superdome
TV: NBC
Odds: Vikings +4.5, Saints -4.5
Total: 47.5
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All Minnesota had to do was avoid penalties and turnovers, and a shot at Super Bowl XLIV would have been in their grasp. Instead, a procedure penalty followed by an interception from the right arm of star quarterback Brett Favre sabotaged Minnesota’s hopes of a dream season. When New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter picked off Favre, the Saints escaped the firing squad. They won the coin toss in overtime, marched downfield for a field goal, and forced the NFL to change its overtime rules for playoff games. Other than that, not much happened the last time these two teams met in the very same Superdome. This opener to the 2010 NFL season should be fun.
How Can Minnesota Win?
For Minnesota, the key is on defense. In January of this year, the Vikings had the Saints on the ropes because their defensive front got a solid upfield push all game long and made New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees uncomfortable. Minnesota won the battle of the trenches seven and a half months ago, and that has to happen again if the Vikes are to have a realistic shot. What makes the need for a pass rush all the more important for coach Brad Childress is that his Minnesota squad has only three healthy cornerbacks. Cedric Griffin is uncertain for this game, and rookie Chris Cook is out. If the front four (and occasionally the corps of linebackers) doesn’t harass Brees, this game will get away from Minnesota in a hurry.
How Can New Orleans Win?
Because Minnesota generally outplayed New Orleans last year, only to commit huge turnovers deep in the Saints’ end of the field, the defending Super Bowl champions have to flip the scrip this time out. New Orleans can’t rest on its laurels; the champs have to reassert themselves up front and give Brees time to operate while also establishing the ground game. If New Orleans’ offensive line plays Minnesota’s line to a standstill, the Vikings don’t have the healthy defensive backs who can keep up with the Saints’ receivers. If Minnesota goes to nickel or dime packages on third downs, the lack of healthy cover corners will prove decisive… as long as New Orleans gets the pass protection and up-front blocking it needs.
Outlook
The Vikings will win some battles up front, but not enough to achieve what they need. New Orleans will hit big pass plays, and since Minnesota’s own receiving corps has been beset by injuries (Percy Harvin will play, but he’s been dogged by chronic and severe migraines throughout training camp), it’s hard to see how the Vikings are in position to play at their very best. Things could change during the season, but right now, the Saints are in a better spot. They’ll win to open the 2010 campaign.
Pick: Saints -4.5
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Dave Golokhov has written for BETUS Sportsbook, Sportsfanmagazine.com, FOX, Askmen.com, Sports-central.org, and the FOXSports.com Funhouse.
