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MNF: Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 1 NFL Lines & Spread Prediction

Monday Night NFL Betting – New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

When the New England Patriots landed a couple of big name free agents to an already talented roster back in 2007, big things were expected, and they went on to win more games than any other team in a single season and fell just minutes short of a Super Bowl victory.

Venue/Stadium: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida
Time/Date: Monday September 11, 2011 – 7:00 PM ET
NFL Odds by BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Patriots -335
Spread (ATS): Patriots -7
Over/Under: 45.5
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This past offseason the Patriots added a couple of big names in Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth hoping to make another championship run. Monday night will mark their first test as they open the regular season with a visit to the Miami Dolphins.

Despite the significant additions, the Patriots’ core remains the same with head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady as the essential cogs. That continuity has bred success over the years and as long as the two are there the Patriots will perennially be Super Bowl contenders. Brady will look to open things up on offense with Ochocinco, Deion Branch, and a healthy Wes Welker, but keep an eye on tight end Aaron Hernandez, who is quietly developing into one of the league’s biggest threats at the position. Hernandez should cause matchup problems for the Dolphins all night, and will help open things up in the running game and on the outside by keeping safeties honest.

While the Patriots have always had Brady to rely on, the Dolphins are hoping that taking another chance on Chad Henne will pay off. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Henne showed flashes in his first season as a starter a year ago, but lacked consistency and his accuracy was erratic at times. Miami replaced the tandem of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, and the success of that transition will be crucial to a successful offense. With Hayneworth and Wilfork in the middle for the Patriots, Miami could be forced to the air and that cannot be a good thing.

New England is looking to open the season by making a statement on the road against a division opponent, and everything points in their favor heading in to week one. Brady has looked as focused as ever, and the Patriots’ already looked in midseason form by their second preseason game. The Dolphins could be in trouble if Brady and company gather momentum early on.

Gambling NFL Trends:

Over is 11-3 in NE last 14 games in Week 1.
Over is 16-5 in NE last 21 games overall.
NE are 44-21-3 ATS in their last 68 road games.
Over is 6-2 in MIA last 8 Mon. games.
Over is 11-4-1 in MIA last 16 home games.
MIA are 17-45-1 ATS in their last 63 home games.
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

NFL Betting Pick: New England Patriots

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About Dave Golokhov AKA Vegas Dave

Dave Golokhov has written for Playboy.com, BETUS Sportsbook, Sportsfanmagazine.com, FOX, Askmen.com, Sports-central, and the FOXSports.com Funhouse.


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