Vikings vs Texans Betting / Handicapping
There will be conflicting priorities on the Vikings bench this Sunday when they seek to keep their playoff chances alive at Houston.
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2)
Sunday, Dec. 23
Reliant Stadium, Houston
1 p.m. EST
Spread – Texans -7.5 at Sportsbook.ag
O/U – 43.5
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On the one hand, Minnesota needs this win. Badly. The Vikes are 8-6 and would be in the playoffs if the league decided that games for Weeks 16 and 17 didn’t actually have to be played.
But in a strange quirk, even if Minnesota figures out a way to take down the 12-2 Texans and then wins again at home against Green Bay on Dec. 30, the Vikes still might not get in.
And if that ice cream headache isn’t enough, Minnesota will also be trying to get its meal ticket, Adrian Peterson, the NFL record for most yards gained in a season.
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Peterson needs 294 more rushing yards to break the record set by Eric Dickerson of the Rams some 28 years ago.
The Vikings will point out, of course, that there won’t be any mixed messages against the Texans. If they are unable to run the ball against Houston’s solid defense (which is ranked fifth in the league against the run), then they probably aren’t going to win the game anyway.
They need Peterson to be Peterson (he’s averaging 6.27 yards a carry), or things will go south pretty quickly.
Peterson is earning his ample salary in a season in which he has rebounded amazing well from ACL surgery less than a year ago. Last week he lugged the ball 24 times for 212 yards against the Rams, an effort which re-ignited talk about surpassing Dickerson’s 1984 record of 2,105 yards in a season.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
The week before that he had 31 carries against the Bears.
The Texans have lost twice this season, and both times have been torched over the top. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers threw for six TDs and 338 yards in beating Houston in mid-October, and Tom Brady reprised that with four TD passes and 296 yards a few weeks ago.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, QB Christian Ponder is hardly a Rodgers of Brady, so Minnesota will have to do it on the ground.
THE PICK – Perhaps still remembering the way Peterson ran against the Rams, at mid-week both experts (80 percent) and the public (71 percent) like the Vikings to cover the 7.5.
Yet even with Peterson the Vikings are a slightly below-average offensive team (22.8 points a game), and Houston is more than decent 5thth) against the run.
Houston also has something to play for – top overall seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 7.5 is a very tight line, but the pick is Houston, which has had little trouble this season against teams with mediocre QBs.
