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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Week 4 Preview & Free Pick

NFL Handicapping – Patriots vs Bills Betting Spread / Matchup

The Pats are only 1-2, but they have 2 close losses decided by field goals. The Bills are 2-1 and they have looked pretty good, but their 2 wins have come over the Chiefs and Browns.

Venue/ Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 30, 2012
NFL Odds From: TopBet
Moneyline: Patriots -210 / Bills +170
Spread: Patriots -4
Over/Under: 51

ATS Matchup Stats | Gambling Insight!  

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Preview

One key in this game is C.J. Spiller, as he has been stellar so far this season, but he is doubtful for this game with a shoulder injury.

NFL lines have the Patriots as 4-point away favorites with a total of 51.

GRAB OUR BEST Expert NFL Picks for 2012 NFL FOOTBALL Betting!

In their last games the Bills beat the Cleveland Browns 24-14 while the Patriots lost to the Baltimore Ravens 31-30.

On the season the Patriots are 2-1 with an Over/Under record of 1-2 and the Bills are 2-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 2-1.

Tom Brady leads the Pats and their 9th ranked passing offense and while he has a great WR corps and a couple of solid TE’s he only has 4 TD in 3 games. The Bills rank 19th in pass defense, but in their 3 games this season they have yet to play a team that has a good passing attack.

RB Stevan Ridley had over 120 rushing yards in the season opener, but has not come near that in his last 2 games. The Bills’ run defense ranks 14th in the league and last week they shut down Trent Richardson on the ground.

Buffalo has a solid pass rush with 9 sacks on the season and it is key that they pressure Brady in the pocket and not give him time to find his many targets. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

While Spiller will probably not play Fred Jackson is close to coming back and if he does Tashard Choice, who had a great game in relief of Spiller in the Cleveland game, will join him in the backfield. While the Pats’ defense has struggled against the pass their run D has been solid and if they can stuff the run they should easily win this game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been decent so far this season with 581 passing yards and 8 TD and his main WR is Steve Johnson (13 rec 172 yards 3 TD). The New England pass defense only ranks 24th in the league and Joe Flacco torched them last season. The Bills do not have a deep WR corps as the 2nd leading

receiver is Spiller while 3rd leading receiver Scott Chandler only has 113 yards through the air this season.

In some betting trends for this AFC East match up the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.

The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win and they have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Jason’s Pick: The Pats have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games facing the Bills in Buffalo and that trend will continue. The Pats will look like the Pats we are used to seeing and they will light up the scoreboard and easily win and cover.


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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.