NFL Preseason Week 2 – Green Bay vs St. Louis
The Green Bay Packers struggled in week 1 of the preseason and lost to the Titans (20-16) at home. The St. Louis Rams looked good in the opening week despite losing at home to the Saints (26-24).
When: Saturday, Aug 16th 2014 4:00pm ET
Where: Edward Jones Dome
TV: NFL Network
Line: -2.5 (Rams) – O/U 41.5
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It’s safe to say we should see a better outing from the Packers this week, as Aaron Rodgers will likely get a bit of playing time. Last week Matt Flynn struggled while Scott Tolzien went 8/12 for 124 passing yards.
Green Bay focused on the run game in week 1 and did great except they couldn’t punch it in enough times to win. GB spread the football around and rushed 35 times for 146 yards (4.2 Avg.) and 2 TD’s.
The Rams allowed the Saints to average 5.1 yards per rush, so the Packers should have success pounding the football again this week. With the depth at RB, the Packers will wear down the Rams d-line.
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Last year the Packers problem was a poor defense, but I thought they played well against the Titans. They held Tennessee to 17 first downs and 267 total yards while forcing two turnovers and two sacks.
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They’ll likely be tested more this week, as Sam Bradford is expected to play after sitting out last week. I was also impressed with Austin Davis and Shaun Hill who combined for 218 passing yards and 3 TD’s.
St. Louis also rushed the football well, as they had 150 rushing yards on 32 carries (4.7 Avg.). Tre Mason got a lot of work, as he had 15 carries for 51 yards (3.4 Avg.). I expect him to get a lot of work again.
Defensively, the Rams allowed 375 total yards against NO, which they need to improve on. They were able to force two turnovers, but I was disappointed with the lack of pressure they got (0 Sacks).
Recent NFL Betting Trends:
- Over is 6-0-1 in Packers last 7 games on turf.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
- Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 vs. NFC.
- Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
- Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Favorite is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Packers vs. Ram Predictions
This has the makings of another shootout like the Rams were in last week. Green Bay’s offense looked good at times last week and they should have no problem piling up the yards on the Rams defense.
Rodgers is likely going to get to play and Tolzien was impressive against TEN. I don’t think either defense will be able to stop the opposing team’s running game, but the question is will they convert drives.
The problem with running the football a lot is that it can lead to FG’s once in the red zone. I’m betting on the over again despite it not hitting on TNF. I expect these two teams to put up over 20 points each.
Both defenses were able to force turnovers last week and if they can continue that trend it’ll likely help push this game over the total as long as the turnovers turn into good field position or points.
St. Louis was definitely the better team in week 1, but will they cover the spread at home? I expect GB to look much better on offense against a weaker defense than they played last week and win this game.
Bet on Over 41.5 Points (-110)
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