Monday Night Football Pick – Week 4
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If tonight’s NFL odds weren’t the ones you’ve been waiting for, you may not be a football fan. Brett Favre on Monday night against his old team, facing off against the guy who held the clipboard while he started? It doesn’t get any better than the Packers and Vikings.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Tonight, 8:35 p.m. ET
If you believe in Monday Night Football lore, you probably expect a heroic Favre performance and Vikings victory tonight. While I expect a great game – even a classic – I don’t expect Favre and the Packers to come out on top.
There’s plenty to like about Minnesota’s chances on paper. The run defense is rolling and the Vikes rank third in the NFL in total defense. Their pass defense, which was mediocre at best last season, has improved dramatically according to the stats. Minny allows 167.7 passing yards per game after giving up 215.6 yards per game last year. However, looking closer, we see that the Vikings have faced Cleveland, Detroit and San Francisco, who rank 26th, 16th and 28th in the NFL in passing offense. It’s thus clear that Minny’s defensive numbers are inflated by facing weak aerial attacks so far.
Though Aaron Rodgers and the Packers haven’t set the world on fire just yet, they’re a talented group due to bust out with some big plays against a physical but beatable Vikings secondary – if Green Bay’s line can finally step up and protect Rodgers.
Betting software also projects for the Packers to give Favre trouble tonight. As a quarterback who sometimes lets pride take over and forces bad throws into traffic, Favre matches up against the Packers like an older version of Jay Cutler. In Week 1, Green Bay’s pass rush forced Cutler into some bad decisions and it may do the same to Favre tonight.
It’s almost a sportsbook given that Adrian Peterson will go off tonight. The Pack’s run defense still leaves a lot to be desired, so the world’s best running back will run them over. Bettors should expect a close, high-scoring affair, but the Packer passing game and its ability to stop Favre will help them edge Minny tonight.
NFL pick: Packers +4.5
One reply on “Monday Night Football Betting Pick | Odds”
The Vikings will look to win this game by controlling field position and the clock with a ground game led by Adrian Peterson. Favre will not have to win the game for Minnesota, but Aaron Rodgers will have to play light out in order for the Packers to have a chance.