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NFL Free Pick: Denver vs. Kansas City Betting Lines & Preview

Broncos vs Chiefs Free Pick

NFL Week 13 Regular Season action sees the Denver Broncos taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, November 30 at Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides free *NFL* handicapping tips all season long.

An AFC West Heavyweight clash come our way on Sunday Night Football this week at Arrowhead with the Chiefs out to avenge an ugly loss last week against hapless Oakland.

NFL Week 13 Betting Lines
Sunday Night Football
Denver (8-3) at Kansas City (7-4)
When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, November 30, 2014
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Broadcast: NBC
Denver Broncos -1½ -115 Ov 49½ -110
Kansas City Chiefs +1½ -105 Un 49½ -110
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KC can tie Denver atop of the Division standings this week in what is the most important game of the season for both teams. Will the Chiefs hold serve or will the Broncos be able to all-but-sew up the West? Let’s take a look.


The Denver Broncos bounced back from a humbling Week 11 loss at St. Louis with a 39-26 win against Miami in Week 12.

But they didn’t look anything like the dominant team that we saw earlier in the season. Injuries have played a part but so has the sudden collapse of a once-dominant defense.

Denver may have found its running back in Week 12 – they have struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this year but CJ Anderson made quite a statement against a very good Miami run defense last week with 167 yards and a TD. The maligned offensive line was much better in the win – thanks in part to Anderson’s abilities. Keeping the defenses honest will be crucial going forward – allowing Peyton Manning to operate with impunity will serve this team well as we head into the stretch run.

Anderson will likely be a factor this week against a Chiefs run defense that has allowed nearly 130 yards per game this season.

With Anderson doing his thing, Peyton Manning should be afforded a bit more time to operate – should! He threw for 257 yards last week with four TDs in the win. We know Manning will do his job. He is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 34 touchdowns and nine interceptions this year – 10 touchdowns and four picks in his last three games. Manning will still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at his disposal but could be without his security blanket Julius Thomas once again.

The Broncos defense will likely be the story here – they know exactly what the Chiefs are going to attempt to do – run the ball down their throats. The Broncos are a team that has allowed 58 points the last two weeks against some average offenses – they will have to tighten up in order to win this one. Aqib Talib and Brandon Marshall are banged up right now – not a good time for this defense!


The Kansas City Chiefs will be a fired up bunch this week – they allowed the Raiders to snap their 16 game losing streak. The good news is that they can still tie the Broncos with a win Sunday. Unfortunately for KC – the one dimensional nature of their offense was seriously exposed – if they have to rely on the passing game they are doomed.

That said Alex Smith threw for 186 yards and two TDS last week – he has three TDS in his last two games and just 13 on the year. Yup – Jamaal Charles is the key to success here. Charles has 772 yards on the year with 8TDs and is just as effective a receiver as he is running the ball. Charles had just 80 yards on the ground last week and the Chiefs lost!

Charles may have a difficult time in Sunday’s matchup as well – the Broncos are #2 in the NFL at stopping the run (although those stats are skewed a bit with teams absolutely having to throw in order to keep up). NO matter the task however – the Chiefs will feature Jamaal Charles early and often – he seems to be their only real chance at winning this game.

KC’s defense matches up pretty well with the Broncos offense – they are #1 against the pass in the NFL allowing just 189.9 yards per game. Their pass rush is among the best in the league – Justin Houston, Dontari Poe, and Allen Bailey are an absolute terror and have 22 sacks combined.

If they can harass Peyton Manning it will certainly limit his effectiveness.

NFL Week 13 Betting Trends

• Over is 8-1 in DEN last 9 games in Week 13.
• DEN are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC West.
• Over is 35-16-1 in DEN last 52 games overall.
• Under is 11-4 in KC last 15 games in November.
• Under is 25-10 in KC last 35 home games.
• Over is 9-4 in KC last 13 games in Week 13.
• Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.
• Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four home games – the Arrowhead domination is back! KC has the type of game perfectly suited to knock off the Broncos in this one – a plodding, clock-eating offense, a good pass defense and a D-Line that can disrupt anything that their opposition hopes to do.

NFL Week 13 Betting Prediction

Peyton Manning is a different QB when he doesn’t have time to throw – I don’t expect him to have room to breathe Sunday.

4* FREE NFL Play: Chiefs + 1 1/2

Take the home team to exploit a suddenly vulnerable defense and to ride their star running back to a quality win!

Check out our Updated NFL Week 13 Odds.

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.