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2010 AFC Conference Championship Lines: Jets Colts Free Predictions

NFL betting – AFC Championship – Jets vs Colts Preview & Pick

First, we saw the Colts and Bengals remaining on the New York Jets’ regular-season schedule and figured they were finished. Then, after the Colts and Bengals rested their starters, the Jets were handed a playoff berth. So we wrote them off against Cincinnati in the Wildcard game and the Jets proved us wrong. Surely, though, their Cinderella run would end in San Diego. Nope.

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The Jets pulled off another miracle and will try to do so again versus mighty Indianapolis.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 24, 3:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Colts -7.5

Rex Ryan said it best after Sunday’s game: “that was Jets football.” When the Jets stick to their strengths – and they have many – they’re a tough team to beat. They’re famous for their defense, especially against the pass. Darrelle Revis matches up against opponents’ top wideouts every week and usually wins the battle. He has an interception in each of New York’s postseason wins this season. The Jets are also tough against the run, so we shouldn’t expect the Colts 32nd-ranked rushing offense to do much.

The Jets’ rushing attack, the best in the NFL, has been a huge plus so far in the playoffs. Thomas Jones carried the torch in the regular season but the bigger yet more explosive Shonn Greene has been the man in the playoffs, topping 125 yards against the Bengals and Chargers. The Colts don’t stop the run very well and could have trouble against the Jets’ dynamite tandem.

Mark Sanchez continues to simply play caretaker for the Jets, limiting his turnovers (one in two playoff games) and chipping in the odd short-yardage touchdown pass. His 4.3 yards per attempt against the Chargers shows that Rex Ryan wants to limit his team’s dependence on quarterbacking.

Some betting sharps probably like the Jets’ odds this week. After all, the Colts match up very similarly to the Chargers in that they have a great passing attack, weak rushing attack, solid pass defense and weak run defense. But there are two important points to remember: (a) That San Diego would’ve won if not for Nate Kaeding, who missed three field goal attempts after missing three all season; and (b) That the Colts, unlike the Chargers, have shown they can win big games.

The Jets will throw something similar to what the Ravens through at Indy last Saturday. Sure, the Colts did nothing on the ground, but Peyton Manning still picked apart their secondary, going 30 of 44 for 246 yards and two scores. Revis is dynamite and will draw Reggie Wayne in the matchup but he can’t do it all against a team with multiple talented receivers; Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson combined for 15 catches and 204 yards last week. Wayne and Dallas Clark should do something similar.

Hey – Ray Rice looked solid against Indy, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. But he carried just 13 times. That’s what happens when you fall behind against the Colts and have no choice but to pass. Joe Flacco couldn’t deliver once the ball was in his hands, throwing two picks. The Jets should encounter the same problem; they’ll eventually have to rely on Sanchez.

I know I claimed the exact same thing would happen to the Jets last week but, to reiterate, it would’ve had Kaeding not choked and the Colts have the killer instinct the Chargers lack. Expect a reasonably close game but pick Indy.

Gambling Trends:

NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
NY Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
Indianapolis is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
Indianapolis is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games

Pick: Colts -7.5

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Shea Matthews lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national newspapers. He now applies his knowledge to sports betting and handicapping every day, and shares his winning picks with the world.

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