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Saints vs. Packers Gambling Odds & Week 4 Free NFL Pick

New Orleans vs Green Bay Betting

Headline: Saints Look to Snap Funk Against Bitter Packers

Two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL (OK maybe Green Bay isn’t that disappointing) meet in a desperate NFC showdown on Sunday. Nobody could have predicted that this would be a must-win for both teams in Week 4!

New Orleans Saints (0-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Date/Time: Sunday, September 30, 2012 4:15 PM ET
Venue: Lambeau Field
Broadcast: FOX
Saints vs. Packers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Packers -9 (+115)
Moneyline: Saints +285: Packers -340
Over/Under: 54 points

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New Orleans has yet to recover from a tumultuous offseason and the Packers have some work to do in order to recover from the debacle that was their Week 3 game in Seattle.

It’s not necessarily that the New Orleans Saints are 0-3 on the season – to me it is more about who they are losing to and the fashion in which they are dropping games. Home losses to the Redskins and the Chiefs and a loss on the road to the Panthers are inexcusable for the legion of Saints fans. Drew Brees has looked mortal, the running game hasn’t exactly helped matters and the defense has been absolutely woeful so far this season.

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Drew Brees is not solely to blame for the early season slump of the Saints. He passed for three scores in last week’s loss and has the Saints ranked 5th in passing. Jimmy Graham didn’t get his yards last week but he did score for the third time proving that he is one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. The running game has been a disappointment though. Outside of Darren Sproles nobody has stepped up. All together the running game is 22nd in the NFL averaging just 92.67 yards per game.

The New Orleans defense has been simply awful this season – dead last in total defense in the NFL. They are last versus the run giving up a staggering 215 yards per game on the ground and they are 25th against the pass allowing 262 yards per game. They are giving up 34 points per game – ya this unit is bad!

Contrary to the Saints, the Green Bay offense has been the sore spot while the defense has shone all season long. Aaron Rodgers and company don’t quite seem to be on the same page but the second half against Seattle may have been the spark that they needed. Rodgers was sacked nine times last week but found some rhythm in the no-huddle in the second half of their Week 3 game. Heading into Week 4 the Packers own the 20th ranked passing offense and the 28th ranked running game although Cedric Benson has looked decent out of the backfield. The Packers have weapons on offense – they just have to get in sync – a surprising 25th in overall offense with 304 yards per game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Green Bay’s defense has been spectacular this season – #1 versus the pass but 26th against the run. But this unit has given up just 304 yards total per game – good for third in the league. Clay Matthews has been a monster and is one of the most feared defenders in the game at the moment.

Betting Prediction:

A few trends to consider:

  •  The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
  •  The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans’s last 5 games when playing Green Bay
  •  The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans’s last 8 games
  •  New Orleans is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
  •  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games when playing New Orleans
  •  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
  •  Green Bay is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
  •  The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games at home

Wow, the oddsmakers are not giving the Saints any love ahead of this game and rightfully so. New Orleans has stopped absolutely nobody on defense so far and they have played against offenses that are nowhere near that of the Packers. Green Bay will score and score and score and the Packers defense should be able to generate the occasional stop. An occasional stop is all that will be required on Sunday – Packers should win in a rout. Don’t fear the Spread!

Pick: Green Bay Packers -9

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.


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