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Saints vs. Packers Gambling Prediction Week 1 Odds

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Preview

Man, could there be a better match up for the NFL’s opening game with the top 2 Super Bowl champions facing each other? I think not and in this game NFL lines has the home Packers as 4-point favorites over the Saints with a total of 47 points.

Venue | Stadium: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Time/Date: 8 PM EST Thursday, September 8, 2011
NFL Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Saints +185 / Packers -215
Spread (ATS): Packers -4
Over/Under: 47


New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Preview

Speaking of the Over the last 5 times these 2 teams have played the total has gone Over every time.

Aaron Rodgers had a remarkable run in the playoffs last season and now has a ring and the status of an elite QB to show for it. He has a solid WR corps, but the offensive line has to keep him off his but against a Saints’ pass rush that likes to wreak havoc in the backfield. Also, New Orleans has a solid pass defense, which ranked 4th in the league last season.

Luckily for the Packers they may have a much better rushing offense this season since Ryan Grant is back and healthy and the emergence in last season’s playoff of James Starks. Defending the run is the big issue on D for the Saints last season and while they only ranked 16th last season they did address that need in the off-season with the additions of NT Aubrayo Franklin and DT Shaun Rogers. These guys have to shine, as the Packers will pound the run to try to control the clock and keep Drew Brees off the field.

The Saints were not the same team they were in their 2009 Super Bowl winning season and the main reason was their rushing offense, which only ranked 28th in the league. Brees had to do it all and that is why he had 22 picks last season. He will still have a good passing offense and the running offense was retooled allowing Reggie Bush to head to the Dolphins and signing free agent Darren Sproles and drafting Mark Ingram in the first round. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

I mentioned all the INT that Brees had last season and they will be key in this game, as last season the Saints were 1-5 when they had more turnovers than their opponent and 9-1 when they did not.

The Packers have a solid pass rush with LB Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks in 2010) and B.J. Raji (6.5 sacks), but they lost Cullen Jenkins (7 sacks), who signed with Philadelphia. The Saints’ offensive line has to protect Brees and it is also vital for them to open up holes for the rushing offense. This is vital, as the Packers run D only ranked 18th last season, but their pass defense ranked a solid 5th.

Betting Trends

New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and in 5 of their last road games the posted total has gone Over 4 times.
Green Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite, and in their last 6 home games the posted total has gone Over 5 times.

Jason’s Pick:

I think the Saints will be a legit Super Bowl contender this season, but the Packers are stacked on both sides of the ball and are at home at Lambeau where they are tough to beat.

The Packers will win this game and since both teams will run the ball the posted total will go Under.

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