Week 5 NFL Spreads: Patriots vs. Broncos

NFL Week 5 – New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Time: Sunday 4:15 ET
Venue: Invesco Field, Denver
MoneyLine: Patriots -175 (-110) / Broncos +155 (-104)
Spread: Patriots -3
Over/Under: 42

The AFC West was figured out way before the start of the season. This time San Diego wouldn’t get off to a slow start, and the Chargers’ talent would dominate a division in which their three opponents were all rebuilding.

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While the Chargers were still in their pajamas and starting the coffee, the Broncos were already busy at work. Taking advantage of a somewhat easy schedule that is getting harder every week, Denver is off to a 4-0 start. The Chargers, meanwhile, are struggling along at 2-2 after getting slapped down by the Ravens and Steelers (not to mention being life and death to beat the Raiders).

In Denver, no one talks much any more about a past that includes last year’s December choke, the firing of legendary coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of Josh McDaniels, the trading of Jay Cutler or the training camp turmoil of Brandon Marshall. All the Broncos and their fans know is that there are only five undefeated teams in the league, and Denver is one of them.

The Broncos will be getting three points Sunday afternoon when they sit down and take their biggest test of the season, against 3-1 New England. McDaniels should know the Patriots system well after calling all the plays for Matt Cassel last season, but even McDaniels will acknowledge that there is no better tactician in the league than Bill Belichick.

The Patriots are also at the end of a curious stretch of games in which they will have played 5 straight undefeated opponents – Buffalo (opening day), the Jets (1-0 at game time), Atlanta (2-0) and Baltimore (3-0) are the others.

Much of the conversation early in the season has justifiably centered on Denver’s swarming defense (just 26 points and two touchdowns allowed in four games), but in New England a rebuilt defense is starting to open some eyes. Everywhere Belichick looked there were players over the age of 30, so he began an on-the-fly makeover. Mike Vrabel was traded, Rodney Harrison and Ted Bruschi retired, and All-Pro Richard Seymour was shuttled off to Oakland just before the start of the season.

In their places are speedsters like safety Brandon Meriweather, linebacker Gary Guyton and cornerback Darius Butler. With speed at linebacker and in the secondary, Belichick rotates defensive linemen around end Ty Warren and nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and the D-line can collapse the pocket more than it has in the past.

But even non-Mensa types (how’s the view from your cell, Plaxico?) know that the Patriots’ chances of returning to the Super Bowl rest uneasily on the surgically repaired left knee of Tom Brady. Brady has gotten a little better with each game, and with Wes Welker back from an injury and ready to torment teams with underneath catches, Brady has just about all the weapons he needs. Just about. Randy Moss is Randy Moss, but Joey Galloway has been a huge bust and NE is looking for another competent wideout.

Denver’s offense should give NE’s New Kids on the Block defense a run for its money. Marshall and McDaniels are now unlikely BFFs, Knowshon Moreno looks like the real deal at running back, and all QB Kyle Orton does is win games. Yes, they got gifts in Week 1 when the Bengals botched coverage on the final play of the game and again in Week 4 when Tony Romo couldn’t hit a reciever to save his life, but wins are wins, and any NFL win is a keeper.

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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel expert from Massachusetts.