Monday Night NFL Betting – Dolphins Will Run By Patriots In South Beach
The New England Patriots are the big brand name that everyone loves to buy but their stock has dipped in recent years. Without a reliable running and without a solid defense – two areas where their Monday night opponent excels – is going to hinder them on the road in Week 4 as well as the rest of the season.
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Event: Monday Night Football
Date/Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Venue: Sun Life Stadium
Odds: Patriots -1
Total: 48
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How Can New England Win?
The Patriots need to start spreading the football around with their passing game. It’s clear that their backfield is very limited as far as workhorses go, so the Patriots will have to be successful through the air to win this week and virtually every week.
This week, the Dolphins will aim for Randy Moss when he’s matched up against Jason Allen and Sean Smith. Allen was abused regularly last week by Jets wideout Braylon Edwards, which bodes very well for Moss.
Many people feel the Patriots can’t run the football but they have a secret weapon: former Div II standout Danny Woodhead. He had a number of key runs last week against the Buffalo Bills and his role could expand this weekend. If you’re a fantasy football enthusiast, keep an eye on him.
On defense, the Patriots need to attack the center of the Dolphins offensive line. With three new starters in the middle, the Patriots will expect defensive tackle Vince Wilfork to have a big game and disrupt both the running and passing games. Center Joe Berger will matchup against Wilfork and when the two locked horns last year, the Dolphins only finished with 96 rushing yards.
How Can Miami Win?
Don’t be intimidated by the Patriots, just like the New York Jets were two weeks ago.
Regardless of what anyone says, the Patriots are no longer the dominant team they once used to be. While their passing game hasn’t been at fault, their running game and porous defense have been.
Overall, the Pats run defense is ranked 20th in the NFL and for the Dolphins, that’s music to their ears. They’ll feed the ball to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and then mix in the Wildcat formations for good measure. The Patriots have struggled in the down-and-distance battles, which should allow Miami to get into a lot of short-and-makeable third down situations.
Miami took a tough loss at home last week but they proved their mettle. When it looked like the Jets had finally taken control of the game, quarterback Chad Henne moved the team down the field and nearly go them back on even footing to tie the game.
He’s not going to be pressured much in this contest and his job will be to simply find the open receiver and make smart decisions. He is coming off of a game where he threw for a career-high 363 passing yards and with the Patriots ranked 25th against the pass, he should be in line for another solid game.
Outlook
The Patriots have struggled on the recent dating back to last year and that will continue on Monday night. They’ll get out to an early lead with a Brady-to-Moss connection but the Dolphins will hammer away with the running game and eventually take control.
The Dolphins have the better running game and the better defense. Combined with the fact that they are playing at home this week, that will lead to an important win and cover for them.
Monday Night Football Trends:
New England is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against New England
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England’s last 10 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
Pick: Dolphins +1
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Dave Golokhov has written for BETUS Sportsbook, Sportsfanmagazine.com, FOX, Askmen.com, Sports-central.org, and the FOXSports.com Funhouse.
