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Colts vs. Patriots Gambling Odds & Week 11 Free NFL Pick

Indianapolis vs New England Betting

Surprising Colts Renew Storied Rivalry With Patriots in Week 11

Two of the best AFC teams so far this season meet in what nobody could have imagined being the marquee matchup of Week 11. The Indianapolis Colts, riding a four game win streak head to Gillette Stadium to take on a New England Patriots team that still has to be considered elite but has looked a tad vulnerable at times this season.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-3)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 18, 425 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Colts vs. Patriots Betting Lines from Sportsbook.ag
Spread: Patriots -9 1/2 (-105)
Moneyline: Colts +350: Patriots -425
Over/Under: 53 1/2 points

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The Colts are unquestionably the nicest story of the NFL season so far. A rookie QB, a sick coach and a city reeling from losing the best passer in the history of the game. No worries Colts fans – Andrew Luck has stepped in and rescued what could have been a crumbling franchise.

He and the Colts rank 8th in the NFL in passing with an average of 278 yards per game, Reggie Wayne is having his best season ever and the complimentary pieces are overachieving so far.

Another huge improvement for the Colts is the running game which ranks 14th in the NFL. They have chipped in with 109.44 yards per game and have taken some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

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Last week for example the Colts rushed the ball 37 times for 138 yards – Indianapolis has 30-plus rushing attempts in five of its six victories, but that typically is a result of playing from ahead.

The Indianapolis defense isn’t going to win games but they certainly won’t lose many either. They are 22nd against the run and 15th against the pass. They figure to get their biggest test of the season with Tom Brady and the boys.

The New England Patriots have been winning lately but not looking as dominant as most would hope. Last week was a 37-31 win versus Buffalo in a game that could have gone either way.

Still with Tom Brady and the #1 scoring offense in the league the Pats are poised to contend for a ring again – ho-hum!

New England is 7th in the NFL in passing with 284 yards per game with weapons to spare. Where this team is different this year is in the running game – 5th best in the league and averaging 146 yards per game. They will get a crack at Indy’s weak run D this week and they could be the difference between winning or losing in this one.[soliloquy id=”82219″]

New England’s problem is the pass defense – something that plays right into the hands of Andrew Luck and company. They are 29th in the league allowing 285 yards per game. The run defense has been OK however – 9th ranked and allowing just 97 yards per game (largely because teams know that they can throw on this team!!!).

Defense has been and will continue to be an issue for the Patriots – I see many shootouts in their future.

Betting Prediction:

• Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis’s last 23 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing New England
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games
• New England is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
• New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• New England is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games at home

We have to be careful when getting too excited about Indy’s four game win streak – those wins came against the Browns, Titans, Fins and Jags! Still you have to love Andrew Luck and his ability to at least keep this game close this week. New England is money at home so they should win but three of their four wins this season have come by less than a touchdown. This will be a fun game for sure – closer that most expect and eye-opening for those who haven’t seen the Colts yet this season. While I like the Pats to win, look for the Colts to keep it tight.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9 1/2 to cover the spread

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.


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