Conference Championship Weekend – New York vs San Francisco
This NFC Championship game was supposed to be a Heavyweight showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints but in a shocking development the old adage “defense wins championships” came to fruition and the offensive juggernauts were sent packing.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2012
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Giants vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: 49ers -2 ½
Moneyline: Giants +120: 49ers -140
Over/Under: 42 ½ points
The New York Giants are following an eerily similar path as their 2008 Super Bowl run and are peaking at the right time while the 49ers finally got some offense to support their stout defense in a win against the Saints. The game is a rematch of a Regular Season game in which the 49ers won 27-20.
The Giants have essentially been playing playoff football for the better part of a month. Needless to say, they have passed every test with flying colors on the way to becoming the hottest, most dangerous teams left in the playoffs. For New York, one thing is drastically different from the team that stumbled through the Regular Season – health!
We all know what the Giants will bring offensively – a lights-out passing game, a battle-tested quarterback and a stable of super receiving threats. Eli Manning and the Giants owned the league’s 5th best passing game during the regular season and one that has put up over 600 yards and six touchdowns in the two games during the 2012 playoffs. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard are as tough as any receiving weapons in the game and Eli Manning has put his money where his mouth is – yes folks, he can now be considered elite!
The Giants defense was OK during the regular season (29th against the pass and 19th against the run) but their ability to generate an insane pass rush late in the season has served them well. Against Green Bay, they were able to get by rushing four – Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora have been ridiculous in the last two games elevating the Giants into the top tier of defenses once again. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Giants should be able to slow what has been a very average 49ers offense.
The San Francisco 49ers rode a stout defense to the second seed in the NFC this season but it was a surprisingly good offensive effort last week that helped them defeat the Saints. Alex Smith? 299 yards passing, three touchdowns and a 50 yard touchdown scamper? You`ve gotta be kidding me! So much for “managing the game!” [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The 49ers had the 29th ranked passing game in the NFL during the regular season – just 183 yards per game. But confidence is a crazy thing. Vernon Davis exploded last week and could become the X-factor once again this week. Michael Crabtree was Smith’s best weapon all year but was awful last week. Bottom line – who knows what to expect from the 49ers passing game.
San Francisco’s running game can and will be leaned on heavily. They were great during the regular season ranking 8th in the NFL and generating 143 yards last week against the Saints. Frank Gore’s effectiveness will serve to wear down the Giants defense, gain a few yards and keep the mighty Eli off the field. He had 13 carries for 89 yards in the teams’ first meeting this season.
Now onto the 49ers vaunted defense – 1st versus the run during the regular season, 16th against the pass and allowing the second least points per game in the NFL – just 14.31. Justin Smith was an absolute terror against New Orleans and rookie Aldon Smith was terrific. Eli Manning will have to be on his toes – the pass rush is coming and the Giants running game isn’t likely to generate anything against the 49ers insane run stoppers.
Betting Prediction: Teams that win straight up as home underdogs in the playoffs (49ers) are 6-22-1 ATS the following game since 1985. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games overall. The Niners are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Giants but are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 games at home. The 49ers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on grass and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC.
Both teams enter Sunday’s game on a four game win streak and both have improved as the season has gone along. But health, post season experience and the all around game of the New York Giants will likely be too much for a 49ers team possesses only a handful of players with playoff experience. The Giants are too hot, too well rounded and too motivated to be denied. Take the Giants to emulate their incredible 2008 run!
Pick: New York Giants +2 ½
