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SUPER BOWL Betting Preview + Prediction – Giants vs. Patriots

SUPER BOWL XLVI – New York vs New England

Super Bowl XLVI is upon us and really, we could not have asked for a better matchup – a rematch of what was widely considered the best NFL Championship game ever played.

N.Y. Giants (14-9) vs. New England Patriots (17-5)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast: NBC
Giants vs. Patriots Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: Giants +150: Patriots -170
Over/Under: 55 points

The Giants come into the game as slight underdogs but having won five straight games by a very impressive combined score of 141-67 while the Patriots are rightful favorites having won 10 straight games – their last loss being a 24-20 defeat to these same Giants in Week 9.

The New York Giants may be lucky to be here – only a late season collapse by the Dallas Cowboys paved their way into the playoffs and only an injury to San Francisco’s regular kick returner paved the way for them to sneak into the Championship game. But if there is one thing that we can say about the G-Men – they have a ton of momentum and they are peaking at just the right time.

The Giants owned the 8th best passing game during the regular season and the run game ranked dead last. Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks were the offense and will likely continue to be against New England’s sketchy defense. Eli Manning has put his money where his mouth is and has graduated to that elite level of quarterback. Look no further than his 316 yards and two scores in sloppy conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in last week’s overtime win! The G-Men have weapons in the passing game – that’s for sure!

As for the running game, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs each had their own injury issues but are finally healthy. Healthy – yes! Effective – not exactly! They will have to pick up their game so the Giants can attack New England with a balanced approach.

Throw out all of New York’s defensive stats from the regular season – this unit is finally healthy and is playing their best ball of the season. Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are lights out at the moment and ready to terrorize Tom Brady!

That brings us to the New England Patriots. Is anyone surprised that they advanced to the Super Bowl? Likely not – it is the 5th time since 2002 that they will appear in the Big Game. The Patriots bring their typically explosive offense and surprisingly emerging defense into the game. But make no mistake about it; Tom Brady will be the key. And he is coming off his worst game of the season – 239 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions in the AFC Championship versus the Ravens. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

New England will rely on their 2nd ranked passing game – like the Giants, their running game has been a colossal disappointment this season. Tom Brady has Wes Welker and two of the most dominant Tight Ends in the game at his disposal – Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Together, the three headed pass catching monster has been and will likely continue to be an absolute matchup nightmare for the Giants in this game. Rob Gronkowski is banged up – his availability and effectiveness could realistically be the difference between winning or losing for the Pats.

Defensively, New England was 31st ranked all season long – they stopped absolutely nobody. But the playoffs have been a different story. Vince Wilfork has been a beast and he alone has elevated the Patriots defense to a different category. The only good thing that we can say about this unit is that despite the insane total yardage numbers they gave up this season, they did rank 15th in points against – even better than the New York Giants!

Betting Prediction: The New York Giants and the New England Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games. The New York Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games but are 2-4 SU in their last six against New England. The Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus the Giants.

This is a very tough game to call but I have to go with the Giants in this one. Tom Brady had his share of issues with the Ravens pass rush last week and had his worst game of the season and now he is faced with arguably a better front four – the Giants D-Line looks absolutely unstoppable at the moment. New England’s defense won’t be able to slow Eli and the boys while on the flip side, I like the Giants emerging peaking defense to at least slow the Patriots offense. Make it two in a row for Eli over Tom in the Biggest Game of all!

Pick: New York Giants +3

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By DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.

One reply on “SUPER BOWL Betting Preview + Prediction – Giants vs. Patriots”

seanmerlino,

Thanks for the comment and thanks for reading my work. Truth be told, my UFC picks have been average lately but then again, it would be easy to pick the favorite in every fight. i love the underdog and i love the price they come at – taking a shot on a dog every card has paid off huge in the past and if you look at the UFC on Fox preview later on, you will see I took Bisping. At -450, a win by him will be a HUGE payday for me.

As for NFL – I went 44-33-3 in my weekly Handicapping piece – not to shabby at all!

I am not disagreeing with your criticism – it is sports afterall – anything can happen!

Dave B

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