HOUSTON TEXANS (4-4) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-4) NFL Free Pick – Odds – Handicapping Preview
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Week 10: Texans at Jags Matchup – Betting Lines
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: EverBank Field, Jacksonville Florida
Broadcast: CBS
Texans vs. Jaguars Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Spread: Jacksonville -1.5
Moneyline: OFF
Over/Under: 50 points
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An unlikely battle to stay relevant in the AFC South takes place on Sunday when the Houston Texans travel to Jacksonville to take on a rested, confident Jaguars team. Both teams are 4-4 and need the win to keep pace with the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.
The big question for Houston going into Sunday’s tilt is – Which Texans team will show up? Houston has been a very inconsistent team so far – good one week and miserable the next. The offense certainly hasn’t been the problem so far, it has been the Swiss Cheese defense that has let them down.
The Texans currently own the 12th raked passing game and the 6th ranked running game in the NFL. Although the passing game has yet to reach the 2009 levels, one can point to injuries to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels as well as the emergence of a strong running game for their decline in production. Matt Schaub doesn’t have to throw as much this year largely because of Arian Foster’s league leading 864 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Still, this is a potent lineup capable of putting up huge numbers on any given Sunday.
The Houston defense is a total mess! They are currently last in total defense, allowing almost 400 yards of offense per game, last in passing yards against (298.25 yards) and 11th in run defense (101.25). The Texans are allowing a staggering 28.25 points per game, good for 28th in the NFL. 
The Jacksonville Jaguars are at .500, just where they should be, but their effort two weeks ago made them look like legitimate contenders in the AFC South. The offense is emerging but the “overhauled” defense has been brutal all season long.
David Gerrard has picked up his play in his last three outings after looking like a quarterback destined for the bench. In his last three games, he has tossed nine touchdowns and zero interceptions and he has rediscovered Mike Sims-Walker along the way. Still, the passing offense ranks 28th in the NFL, averaging just over 181 yards per game.
Maurice Jones-Drew needs to be utilized in order for the Jags to have success. So far this season he has led Jacksonville to the league’s 8th ranked run offense. When the Jaguars lose, it is a good bet that Jones-Drew didn’t get his touches. When Jacksonville wins, he is usually a big factor.
Coach Jack Del Rio has prided himself on his ability to produce a strong defensive club – what happened? The Jags are 28th in total offense (386 yards per game) and are particularly brutal against the pass. There is no improvement in sight, meaning that Jacksonville’s sketchy offense is having to pick up the slack – OUCH!
Betting Prediction:
Houston is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games and is 8-4 SU in their last 12. However, the Texans are just 2-4 SU in their last six and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games. Houston is 4-1 SU in their last five road games but is 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road. Houston is just 2-4 SU versus the Jags in the last six meetings and is just 1-4 SU in their last five trips to Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20. At home the Jags are 2-4 SU in their last six and are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games. Jacksonville is a miserable 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against Houston.
Houston was supposed to contend this year but their 4-4 record suggests otherwise. Look for a strong bounce back game for the Texans against a porous Jacksonville defense. This is a matchup of two of the worst defenses in the game – the better offense will win.
Betting Pick: Houston Texans +1.5
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