NFL Free Pick – Browns vs Bengals
Two surprisingly competitive AFC North teams do battle on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals hope to keep their playoff hopes alive (for the Browns chances are slim).
CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-6) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-4)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 27, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Broadcast: CBS
Browns vs. Bengals Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Bengals -7 ½
Moneyline: Browns +290: Bengals -345
Over/Under: 37 points
Both teams are among the younger teams in the NFL, both have unspectacular offenses and both possess strength in various aspects of their defenses. It should be an interesting battle indeed as both teams try to prove that they are indeed on their way up the NFL standings ladder.
Cleveland snapped a three game losing streak last week with an uninspiring 14-10 win against Jacksonville. They are not a team that is going to beat you with offense. The Browns are 23rd in the NFL in passing (205 yards per game), 29th in rushing (93.10 yards per game) and they are 29th in scoring (15.50 points per game).
Colt McCoy is a decent pivot whose problems mostly lie in the serious lack of talent that he has around him. Greg Little, Mohammad Massaquoi and Ben Watson are the underwhelming “weapons” that he has at his disposal. Despite it all, McCoy has made the most of his situation and last week had one of his better games in a while – 17 of 24 for 199 yards and a touchdown against the Jags.
Cleveland’s running game has been battered, bruised and beaten this entire season. The Browns have yet to find any chemistry or consistency with their rushing attack. “Madden Cover Boy” Peyton Hillis has been out for seven weeks and his attitude has all but assured that he won’t be back with the Browns while Montario Hardesty has been out three weeks. That leaves Chris Ogbonnaya. Who? That’s what I said too. He did have 115 yards last week though!
Cleveland’s defense is Jekyll and Hyde – Best in the NFL against the pass (166.50 yards per game) and 29th versus the run (139.30 yards per game). Cedric Benson are you listening? [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Cincinnati Bengals have lost two straight games. They played Pittsburgh and Baltimore very tough but proved that they are not quite at that level yet. They are a young spunky bunch that doesn’t know the meaning of the word “quit”.
Offensively, they have one of the finest young nucleuses in the league – Andy Dalton may just be the Rookie of the Year, AJ Green is a Top 10 Rookie of the Year candidate and Jermaine Gresham appears to be the future of the NFL Tight End. Green was injured last week and another youngster Jerome Simpson stepped up in Green’s absence last week and gained 152 yards on 8 catches. With Cedric Benson holding down the fort in the backfield, Cincinnati is a force. Benson had 121 yards and a touchdown already this season versus the Browns and he owns a 150 yards rushing game and a 171 yard rushing game in his career against Cleveland.
The Bengals are the 17th ranked passing game and the 18th ranked running game in the NFL and only getting better.
While Cincinnati’s offense has seen a rebirth this season it has been the defense that has made them a 6-4 team. They are 11th against the pass and 3rd against the run. However, the Bengals have given up over 100 yards rushing in their last two games.
Betting Prediction: The Cleveland Browns are 2-5 SU in their last seven games and 1-4 ATS in their last five. Cleveland is 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on the road. The Browns are 1-5 SU in their last six games against the Bengals and are 1-6 SU in their last seven trips to Cincinnati. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
The Cincinnati Bengals are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games but are just 8-15 SU in their last 23. The Bengals are 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 4-2 SU in their last six at home. Cincinnati is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Cleveland.
Although the Bengals are an up-and-coming team and the Browns are the Browns, this game has low scoring written all over it. Defense will be on display Sunday – close and ugly is how this game should play out. With that in mind, the Spread looks a little rich for me!
Pick: Cleveland Browns +7 ½ and take a shot at the Under – 37 points
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