Green Bay vs. Chicago NFC Championship Gambling Preview & Prediction

NFL Conference Championship Gambling – Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

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Green Bay vs. Chicago Matchup Tips
Sunday January 23 – 3:00PM
Venue: Soldier Field – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast:  FOX
Green Bay -190 vs Chicago +160 (Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Green Bay -3.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)

Green Bay

The Packers are about the hottest thing going right now.  They needed to win their last two games to qualify for the playoffs, including beating Chicago in week 17, and have looked very impressive in playoffs wins over the Eagles and Falcons.  All of those reasons many thought GB was a serious Super Bowl contender in the preseason – stingy defense and prolific offense –  have come back to the fore after a season that showed only glimpses of their potential.

Speaking of potential it is clear that Aaron Rodgers is reaching his.  He struggled early in the season but was near perfect last week in dismantling the Atlanta defense, even though the running game didn’t give him much support.  He is super confident right now and has experience facing Chicago’s defense.  In the season finale his numbers were just OK so I imagine that the Bears will employ a similar strategy.  Both teams are familiar with each other so it will really come down to execution.

I hope this is right – the Packers and the Bears have only met one time in the playoffs and that was back in 1941 (Bears won).  In fact they have only made the playoffs in the same year 4 times in their histories.  Still these are two teams who know each other very well.  They split in the regular season and have split their last 10 games against each other.  Each team is 5-5 ATS over that period as well so you have to go with something you like in this contest.

Chicago

It is still surprising to me that Chicago has gotten this far.  Yes they have brought back their Monsters of the Midway defense but when your best offensive weapon is a punt returner it is indicative of a team with obvious flaws…but they just keep winning and those aforementioned flaws refuse to be exploited when it comes to them winning games.  No matter where we are in the season I refuse to call the Bears an elite team.

The key player for the Bears is QB Jay Cutler, who has shown on several occasions he knows how to lose a football game.  With this group he doesn’t absolutely have to win it for them but he can’t bury them with turnovers because this team is not equipped to play from behind.  If he is smart and can exploit TE Greg Olson like he did last week and the defence performs than he just might join a list of unexpected Super Bowl QBs – a la Sexy Rexy (Rex Grossman).

Bears vs Packers is a very good rivalry although it seems that usually when one is up the other is down.  If the Bears want to down Green Bay as the home underdog they will need a magnificent performance from their defence…not just good- GREAT.  That is a lot of pressure on one particular unit of the team and I think this game will reveal that Chicago, as it is currently constituted, can only go so far.

The Pick: It is not often that the home team is the underdog in a conference championship game.  Green Bay is a solid favourite to back.  They are more talented and uber-familiar with the Bears and Soldier field.  Bet them now before the line moves against you further.

NFL Gambling Trends

Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bears are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.

Score Prediction:  Green Bay 28 – Chicago 17

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