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Free Picks: Indianapolis vs. New England Handicapping Preview & ATS Prediction

AFC Championship: Colts vs Pats ATS Picks

The AFC Championship Game features the Indianapolis Colts taking on the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Cappers Picks provides free NFL handicapping tips all season long.

Coming off their upset victory in Denver, Andrew Luck and the Colts look to keep on rolling as the visit Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday.

NFL Football Odds

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (13-4)
Sunday, Jan 18
6:40 PM ET
Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
NFL Football Betting Lines: New England -7
NFL Football O/U: 53.5
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While Brady has the upper hand in terms of experience, Andrew Luck has shown signs of maturity and growth and is ready to take the next step.


Andrew Luck has proven that he can be one of the most elite quarterbacks in the NFL. After picking apart the Bengals in the AFC Wild Card game, Luck continued his dominance last week in the Divisional game against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Luck threw for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 21 rushing yards. He led the Colts to a game clinching 8 minute and 14 second drive that resulted in a field goal to put them up by 2 scores.

Luck will look to continue his impressive play as he tries to earn a bid into the Superbowl for the first time in his career.

Another key to the Colts success has been the dominant defensive play. In the Wild Card game, Indianapolis put continuous pressure on QB Andy Dalton and never allowed him to get into any kind of groove passing the ball. The same applied last week against Denver, as the defense allowed Manning to throw for just 212 yards.

The Colts were one of the best ATS teams in the regular season.

Going 12-5-1 overall, Indianapolis also went 6-3 ATS on the road. They’ve easily covered both playoff games, one as a favorite and one as a 10 point underdog.

New England

This is just another day for Tom Brady. Holding a 19-8 record over in playoff games, Brady is looking to head to the Superbowl for the 6th time in his career. Having 3 Superbowl rings to his name, Brady will look to earn a Superbowl birth for the first time since the 2011-2012 season when he lost to Eli Manning and the Giants 21-17. The last time Brady won a Superbowl was back in 2004-2005.

New England needed to overcome a 2 touchdown deficit in the 2nd half and used a 23 yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Brandon LaFell with 5:13 left to secure their spot in the AFC Championship game. Patriots spread backers were still not pleased as they failed to cover the 7 point spread.

While the Patriots have earned a 1st round bye the past two seasons, they’ve fell in the AFC Conference Championship 2 straight times. Last year, they couldn’t overcome the Broncos. The year before that they failed to handle the Ravens. The recent struggles in the Conference Championship game has been due to lack of offensive production. The Patriots were 0-2 ATS in both games, one as a favorite and one as an underdog.

On the season New England is just 9-8 ATS overall. Even though they are 8-1 S.U. at home, they’re just 5-4 ATS in those 9 games.

NFL Football Trends:

  • Colts are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. AFC.
  • Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Colts are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
  • Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games.
  • Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games.
  • Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games.

Free 4* ATS Pick: Indianapolis +7

This number most likely won’t be around long so grabbing it early is key. Andrew Luck and the Colts are playing the best football they’ve played all season long. Expect the Colts to do the same thing they did to the Broncos as they wore them down in the 2nd half and controlled the time of possession.

Indianpolis 24, New England 20

In the end, the Colts come out a straight up winner and move on to the Superbowl.

Check out our Updated NFL Conference Championship Game Odds.

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About Tony M

Tony is new to Cappers Picks and has been betting on sports since the first day he turned 18. He is a 22 year old Cleveland native who lives and breathes Indians baseball. His dream is to be part of a championship celebration at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.