Week 12 Odds: Jacksonville vs Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts (6-4) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) in an AFC South match-up. Be sure to come back to Cappers Picks everyday for our latest free NFL picks that we’ll be providing all season.
This is the biggest point spread of the week and normally I hate big favorites, but it’s hard to bet against the Colts in division match-ups.
NFL Week 12 Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
When: Sunday, Nov 23rd 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL Week 12 Gambling Line: Colts –14
NFL Week 12 Gambling O/U Line: 50.5 Points
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Indy is 3-0 in the AFC South this year and they’ll win on Sunday.
Indy played Jacksonville in week 3 and they won 44-17 on the road. Now they get the Jags at home in a game that the Colts can’t afford to lose, so I expect this one to get ugly very quickly in Indy.
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Andrew Luck and the Colts offense averages 31.0 PPG (3rd), 334.0 PYPG (1st) and 104.3 RYPG (17th). Hilton is starting to put up WR #1 numbers, but he’s still having trouble finding the endzone consistently.
Luck seems to favor the TE’s in the red zone. Fleener and Allen have caught 11 TD passes combined while Hilton and Wayne have caught a combined 5 TD passes, but as long as Indy is scoring it doesn’t matter.
Jacksonville isn’t going to be able to stop this offense. The Jags are allowing teams to score 28.2 PPG (31st) while giving up 261.9 PYPG (26th) and 126.2 RYPG (25th). This defense has been struggling all year.
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The Jags made some big signings this off-season on defense, but it hasn’t worked out. The offense for the Jaguars isn’t much better, as they average 15.8 PPG (32nd), 217.0 PYPG (24th) and 98.1 RYPG (22nd).
If Indy wants to win a Super Bowl they need to tighten up on defense. The Colts are giving up 25.3 PPG (22nd), 262.9 PYPG (27th) and 112.9 RYPG (17th), which isn’t good enough for a playoff contender.
I just don’t think the Colts shortcomings on defense will be enough to sway the balance in this game.
Indy is going to be able to score at will and they always seem to play their division opponents very tough.
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NFL Week 12 Betting Trends
* JAC are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
* Under is 14-5-1 in JAC last 20 vs. AFC South.
* JAC are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
* IND are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 10-2 in IND last 12 games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in IND last 10 vs. AFC.
4* Free NFL Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
The last four times the Colts have played the Jaguars the games have ended with Indy winning by 17 or more points. Indy is struggling out of the AFC South, but they dominate within the division.
Blake Bortles didn’t play the Colts earlier this year, but he hasn’t been great. He has no problem slinging the football around, but he has thrown 14 INT’s already and he only has 8 passing TD’s.
Indianapolis Colts –14 (-110)
These big spreads are always tough because the underdog typically has the chance for the backdoor cover in garbage time, but based on recent trends in this H2H series I can’t bet against Indy.
Check out our Updated NFL Week 12 Odds.
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