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Free Pick: Bills vs. Dolphins NFL Lines & Handicapping Preview

Week 11:  Buffalo vs Miami Predictions

NFL Week 11 betting action sees the Buffalo Bills taking on the Miami Dolphins on Thursday November 13th at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida.  Cappers Picks provides free NFL handicapping tips all season long.

This is a big one for both teams as they try and extend their playoff possibilities.

NFL Week 11 Picks

Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Thursday November 13
Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL
NFL Network
NFL Football Betting Lines:  Miami -5
NFL Football Betting Total:  42
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Both are teetering on the edge so there should be some desperation on the field.


The Bills lost a tough one last week. Tough in the way it played out and tough in terms that it aided Kansas City, a team they will now have to chase if they want to make the playoffs.

Since making the change to Kyle Orton this team has showed a nice toughness and it will be needed as they hit the road to face Miami, who is in the same situation as the Bills.

They are still dealing with key injuries but they seem to get getting healthier – only one RB is listed (C.J. Spiller).

Buffalo was smart to go with Kyle Orton at QB but he has to start getting them into the end zone more.

Other than scoring 42 points at the Jets the Bill have not more than 22 points in any of their last 7 games.


That makes the margin of error so very slight as was the case last week when they seemed in control of that game against KC, but not putting up points let their opponents come back.

I would love to see them air it out a bit more and take some chances.


The Dolphins are one of the most confounding teams in the NFL. When you look at the numbers you think you are looking at a team that should be pretty good, not just better than average. Last week they lost a tough one on the road at Detroit.

Similar to the Bills they lost it late so you have to wonder if the sting might linger. Some home crowds lift teams up but that is not really the situation down in South Florida.

There is a lot at stake in this one and whichever team plays smarter will probably win.

If you have ever read any of my stuff you will know that I am not a fan of Ryan Tanneyhill. Admittedly he is having his best season yet but in the really big moments I don’t trust him to make the right decisions – he rarely puts up big numbers in close games.

On the other side the Dolphins have a fairly formidable defense led by Cameron Wake, one of the best disruptors out there.

This one could easily come down to which team posts the most sacks which means he has to get into Orton’s face.

NFL Football Handicapping Trends:

  • Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games in November.
  • Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games overall.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins last 6 Thursday games.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Dolphins last 7 games in Week 11.
  • Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Football Week #11 Prediction:  Buffalo +5

I like the Bills to upset the Dolphins on Thursday night.

4* FREE NFL Score prediction:  Buffalo 24 – Miami 21

They beat them easily in September and might be a better team now though they don’t always show it.

Check out our Updated NFL Week 11 Odds.

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.