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NFL Football Picks: Handicapping Angles – Conference Championships Free Parlay

NFL Conference Championships Free NFL Parlay Picks

The NFL Playoffs are down to the final four teams heading into this Sunday’s conference championships, so it stands to reason that this week’s two-team NFL parlay for Capper’s Picks will cover both NFC and AFC title games.

NFL Football Gambling

It will also be my last parlay play of the season, so I will do my best to leave you with a pair of winners.

I have already dug deep into the two matchups on Sunday’s slate to come up with a pair of picks that should fit the bill. These picks are based on NFL betting odds as provided by 5Dimes

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Pointspread: Seahawks -7.5
Total Line: 47
Matchup | Preview

As goes Aaron Rodgers’ injured calf, so goes the Packers’ chances of returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2010 season. He managed the game fairly well in Green Bay’s 26-21 victory against Dallas in the Divisional Round, but his team could not cover as a 5.5-point home favorite.

This time around, the Packers will be 7.5-point underdogs on the road, so it is not all that encouraging that they are just 1-8 straight-up and against the spread in their last nine road games as underdogs.

The fact that they do have a 6-3 SU edge in the last nine meetings against Seattle helps to balance things out in Green Bay’s favor.

The Seahawks started this run to a second-straight appearance in the NFC title game with a convincing 36-16 victory over Green Bay in their season opener as 4.5-point home favorites. They are also riding a current SU seven-game winning streak that includes a highly profitable 6-0-1 record ATS.

Russell Wilson continues to make plays throwing the ball and Seattle’s potent rushing attack is anchored by the running of Marshawn Lynch, but the real strength of this team still lies in its shutdown defense.

This unit is ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (15.9) and during this recent seven-game run this average has dropped to just eight points an outing.

The cards appear to be stacked against Green Bay in this matchup, but that extra half-point on the current spread is huge in my book.

MyBookie

Look for Rodgers to keep this a one-touchdown spread as Green Bay covers with the 7.5 points.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Pointspread: New England -7
Total Line: 53.5
Matchup | Preview

Indianapolis is already ahead of the game after knocking-off Denver in the Divisional Round 24-13 as a heavy 9.5-point road underdog. Its defense came to play in that game and it will once again be the key if the Colts are going to have any shot at landing a spot in Super Bowl XLIX.

The betting trends for the total lean towards a high-scoring game given that the total has gone OVER in nine of Indy’s last 10 games against the AFC East including the last six meetings against the Patriots, but it has now stayed UNDER in 10 of its last 13 road games in the playoffs after staying UNDER the 54-point line against the Broncos.

It is pretty obvious that New England knows how to win games at home with a 17-1 SU (12-6 ATS) record in its last 18 games at Gillette Stadium. Even two 14-point deficits could not deter Tom Brady and Co. from pulling-out a thrilling 35-31 victory against the Ravens this past Saturday as seven-point favorites at home.

The total in that game went OVER the closing 47.5-point line after it had stayed UNDER in five of the Patriots’ previous six contests.

While conventional wisdom may point to this Sunday’s game turning into another shootout with Andrew Luck coming to town, I am going with the UNDER 53.5 as my official pick, in a game that will ultimately be decided by defense and turnovers.

Check out our Updated NFL Conference Championship Odds.



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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.


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