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Week 4 Handicapping

Early betting reported at SPORTSBETTING.com shows the betting public leaning to the Bills, we bring you this and more week 4 handicapping tips…

Sports Betting Tips: Handicapping Injuries and Suspensions

The sports betting world is getting set to make their NFL picks for this coming Week 4 schedule and one of the things everyone needs to be aware of is, of course, injuries. But not just players who are out of the lineup because of nicks and bruises, but also players who are coming back from an injury…or from a league mandated suspension.

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The Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch will rejoin the team this week for the trip to play the Dolphins. Miami has been forced into major roster changes of their own this week, but given the situation, the sports betting public may find more value with odds on the Dolphins covering the spread than the visitor.

Lynch is scheduled to return to the team after serving a three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. He pleaded guilty in March to a misdemeanor gun charge in Los Angeles and it was his second run-in with the law in the past two years.

The team’s leading rusher the past few years, Buffalo obviously welcomes Lynch back to the roster with open arms. Bettors have made money on the Bills against the spread this year but a straight-up win-loss record on the wrong side of .500 leaves Coach Dick Jauron with little choice but to get Lynch involved right away.

Online sportsbooks have been busy trying to get a handle on this Week 4 AFC East matchup, as the situation for the Dolphins is unstable at the moment after QB Chad Pennington left last week’s game vs. San Diego with a shoulder injury. Odds on this game were expected to favor Miami, mostly thanks to the standard three points given for home field advantage but the loss of Pennington coupled with the return of Lynch has the line sitting at -2.5 on the visitor, and the early betting reported at SPORTSBETTING.com shows the betting public leaning to the Bills (63% of all the volume is on Buffalo). Check the current NFL Lines

Two things regarding injuries for bettors to keep in mind:

A) Teams often rally in the first game after a star goes down and B) Backup players thrown into the role of starter will occasionally turn out to be a better fit than the starter himself. Both of these betting tips are directly related to this matchup.

Start with Buffalo, where third year back Fred Jackson has started in place of Lynch all three games this season, carrying 61 times for 291 yards. That’s already more than half Jackson’s total (571 yards) through 16 games last year and it’s 73 yards better than Lynch could do in his first three games of 2008.

In Miami the ball is being handed to second year pro Chad Henne, who has been groomed since Day 1 as Pennington’s heir apparent. Sports bettors only have to think back one year to remember what happened when Matt Cassel, a virtual unknown, unexpectedly stepped into the role of starting quarterback for New England.

NFL betting is about staying ahead of the curve and making selections based on teams that will do whatever it takes to win and cover the spread in the process. Playing at home against a division rival and getting the chance to show up Terrell Owens, it seems that motivation will be high with the Dolphins this week while Buffalo deals with trying to force a starter into a spot that was being filled quite nicely without him.

That kind of thing can cause real disruption in a fragile locker room and in team sports the whole squad needs to be on the same page to win. Don’t forget, Miami did win 11 games last year straight-up and went .500 against the spread. At 0-3 you can bet the coaching staff (and Parcells) are looking at those game as a great opportunity for their first win.

As of now, we lean to the home underdog dealing with the loss of their QB.

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By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"

One reply on “Week 4 Handicapping”

Sometimes it is not the players it is the coaching schemes that bring out the best in teams. Sure the players still have to perform, but if they are put into an environment that is successful, they will succeed.

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