NFL Handicapping – Colts vs Titans Betting Spread / Matchup
After losing 4 of their first 5 games the Titans (3-4) have won 2 straight and in their last game Chris Johnson blew up for 195 rushing yards and looked like the RB that was the best in the league a couple years back.
Venue/ Stadium: LP Field, Nashville, TN
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, October 28, 2012
NFL Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Colts +155 / Titans -170
Spread: Titans -3.5
Over/Under: 47
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Preview
The Colts (3-3) are coming off a win and the winner of this game will take over sole possession of 2nd place in the AFC South. NFL lines have the Titans as 3.5-point home favorites in this game with a total of 47.
In their last games the Colts beat the Cleveland Browns 17-13 and the Titans beat the Buffalo Bills 35-34.
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On the season the Colts are 3-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-3 and the Titans are at 3-4 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-2.
Matt Hasselbeck should get the start under center if Jake Locker cannot go because of injury and he has gone 2-1 since taking over as the QB. He has a decent WR corps led by Nate Washington and he will be facing the weakness of the Colts’ D, which is their pass defense that only ranks 26th in the league.
The Colts have had problems against the run this season with the league’s 26th ranked run defense and they will get a heavy dose of Johnson in this game. The question is which Johnson will show up? The one that has struggled for most of the season or the one that rushed for a ton of yards last week? It may be the latter since he torched the weak Buffalo run defense last week and the Colts also have a weak run D.
Andrew Luck is the first rookie in the league this season to 1.500 yards and Reggie Wayne looks like the WR he was when Peyton Manning was with Indy with 47 rec for 666 yards and 2 TD. The Titans only rank 27th in the league in pass D and they have rally struggled facing legit TE’s so look for the rookies of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen to get a lot of calls. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Luck will likely have a lot of time to find his targets since the Titans’ pass rush ranks 2nd to the last in the league with only 9 sacks.
The Colts have really struggled to run the ball this season, but they racked up a season high 148 yards on the ground last week. Rookie Vick Ballard had 84 rushing yards last week and the Colts may get back leading rusher Donald Brown, who has missed the last 2 games with an injury. The Tennessee run defense only ranks 25th in the league and they gave up 166 rushing yards last week in the win over the Bills.
In some betting trends for this AFC South match up the Colts are 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and they have an Over record of 16-5 in their last 21 road games.
The Titans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC South, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.
Jason’s Pick: The Colts are only 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Tennessee and even though Luck was not playing in any of those games I think that trend will continue. Johnson will have another big game and the Titans will win a close one, but they will still cover the spread.
