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ATS Pick: Chicago vs. Baltimore (Wk 15)

Mitch Wilson weighs in with his week 15 matchup insight for the Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens. Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 11-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game’s total is sitting at 40½…

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

Mitch Wilson
Mitch Wilson

Sunday December 20, 2009 1 PM EST
The Line: Baltimore Ravens – 11

The Baltimore Ravens are clinging to their playoff hopes by a thread and they hope to keep them alive as they host the Chicago Bears.

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The Baltimore Ravens are one of the more battle tested teams ion the NFL and if they manage to make the playoffs they more than likely aren’t going to face a team they didn’t face during the regular season. The Ravens have only lost to one team that isn’t currently in first place in their respective division and that one team is Green Bay who is red hot and who is currently the leader in the NFC for a Wild Card spot. The Ravens defense is aging but even worse they have been banged up all year and haven’t been together as a unit for more than a handful of games. Ray Lewis has been playing hurt all year and as the veteran and leader of the defense, he continues to lead by example and come up with big play after big play and each of his hits sends a demoralizing message to the opposing offense. Ed Reed may have taken over Lewis’ title as best defensive player in teh NFL but Reed has been banged up as well and has missed a few games. Terrell Suggs leads the pass rush from the end spot but he has missed a good portion of the season with injuries as well. With the Ravens knowing that there are only three games left and it’s come down to dire straights, they should be close to having most of their starting lineup ready to go. Offensively the Ravens have one of the best backfields in the league but they aren’t getting the passing they need to beat the better teams. Joe Flacco has 15 touchdown passes on the year but the 11 interceptions have been costly.

Speaking of interceptions, Chicago’s Jay Cutler has thrown them in bunches. Many in Chicago thought Cutler was the answer and the savior when the Bears acquired him from Denver for two first round draft choices and starting QB Kyle Orton but Cutler has been far from spectacular. Cutler puts up big yardage numbers but that comes from the offense being so inept that the Bears often trail and he gets to clean up against a soft zone as the other team’s defense is in a prevent. Matt Forte’s sophomore NFL campaign has been a let down as well and the bears running attack has been sporadic. Defensively the Bears lost their heart and soul Brian Urlacher in the first game of the season and they haven’t been the same since.

Former All-Pro corners Nate Vasher and Charles Tillman have been nothing more than a shell of themselves. To say this season has been disappointing to Chicago fans would be an understatement and there are even rumblings the head coach Lovie Smith, once the toast of the Windy City, maybe on his way out.

Baltimore is 4-0 against the spread as a favorite of 10 1/2 or better, 10-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record, and 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 home games. Chicago is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog of 10 1/2 or more but they are 1-10 against the spread in their alst 11 games as an underdog and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games.

Though he has been ripped in the media and by the fans, Jay Cutler’s confidence is far from shaken. Cutler makes bad decisions and whether that is do to his own ability, his lack of wide receivers or the pass rush he faces week in and week out, it doesn’t make the damage of his red zone interceptions and less hurtful to his team. The Bears are out of the playoffs but may be looser than they have in quite some time as well. The Ravens will be bringing it with everything they have and while I believe all teams always bring it with everything they have, they don’t always bring it with all of the personnel they have. This one could get ugly and the Lovie rumblings may get louder.

Mitch’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens – 11

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