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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 4 Preview & Free Pick

NFL Handicapping – Chargers vs Chiefs Betting Spread / Matchup

The Falcons have taken an early commanding lead in the NFC South at 3-0 while the Bucs and Panthers are 1-2 and the Saints are, surprisingly, 0-3.

Venue/ Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 30, 2012
NFL Odds From: TopBet
Moneyline: Chargers -110 / Chiefs -110
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Over/Under: 44

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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview

While the Chargers won their first 2 games and looked good doing it they were embarrassed their last loss while the Chiefs were impressive in winning their first game of the season last week. Still, at 2-1 the Chargers are still all alone in first place in the AFC West while the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos are all 1-2.

NFL lines have the Chargers as slight 1.5-point road favorites with a total of 44.

In their last games the Chiefs came back to beat the New Orleans Saints 27-24 while the Chargers’ offense stalled in a 27-3 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

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On the season the Chargers are 2-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-2 and the Chiefs are 1-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 2-1.

Phillip Rivers only has 4 TD’s on the season and he stunk it up last week in Atlanta only passing for 173 with 0 TD and 2 INT. Malcolm Floyd is the only Chargers player that has over 100 receiving yards and Rivers has to spread it out more in this game.

The Chiefs rank 12th in the league in pass defense, but they do not have a good pass rush and Floyd (6’5″) and Robert Meachum (6’2″) may cause a big problem for the small KC secondary.

Ryan Mathews struggled in his first game back last week, but expect more from him this game facing a Kansas City run defense that only ranks 19th in the league. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Matt Cassel has over 800 passing yards, but he only has 3 TD. Dwayne Bowe is his main target with 18 catches for 234 yards and 2 TD and the Chargers’ pass defense was schooled last week by Matt Ryan and the Falcons and overall they only rank 17th in the league.

The Chargers’ run defense ranks 4th in the league, but they will be tested in this game facing the Chiefs, who have the league’s best rushing offense. Jamaal Charles had 233 rushing yards last week against the Saints and he will be the key for the Chiefs’ offense.

If the Chargers can keep him from having another big game they will be in good shape.

While the Chargers have won 7 of their last 9 games against the Chiefs they have their last 2 in Kansas City.

In some betting trends for this AFC West match up the Chargers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Over record of 32-15-4 in their last 51 road games.

The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they have an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 home games.

In the last 4 games between these 2 division rivals the total has gone Under 4 times.

Jason’s Pick: I thin Rivers will get back on track in this game and while it will not be a blowout the Chargers will win this game and cover the spread in Kansas City.


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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.