Bills vs Pats NFL Football Spread/Handicapping
I think it is fair to say that little has gone according to plan for Buffalo this year. Still they enter this road division tilt with a chance to narrow the gap between them and New England to just a single game.
Buffalo Bills (3-5) vs New England Patriots (5-3)
Sunday November 11
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
1:00PM
Moneyline: New England -600, Buffalo +450
Spread: New England -11
O/U: 51
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Buffalo
They have been a stronger team on the road than at home this year which is odd because Rich Stadium used to be a nice advantage for them. They are looking to avenge a total smackdown by the Patriots earlier this season.
The defense which they invested heavily in the offseason has been a complete disaster.
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They are second last in the league in points allowed giving an average of 31ppg. The way they turnover the ball doesn’t help matters but they are second to last in yards too. On offense they have the running game to try and control games but with so many turnovers and no defensive backup it is not really working out.
This is one of the biggest spreads for the week. When the Bills got smoked at home by the Pats they were just 3.5 point dogs. Now they are more than a touchdown more in the hole. That opens up this game big time. They might get smoked again but I do see a scenario where the running game and a not as terrible defensive effort makes this a 7 or 10 point final
New England
With last week’s win the Patriots have reclaimed top spot in the AFC East. This week they are coming off a bye and staring down 4 very winnable games before a clash with Houston. After some early season stumbles they have won their last two, obliterating St. Louis in London most recently. They should be back to their normal routine after the odd travel week as they have been back the US for some time now. (I am sure someone has the numbers on how team’s play after London). [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Patriots have the top offense in the league, both in terms of yards and scoring. QB Tom Brady is playing well but they are also killing it in the running game with the 4th best attack in the league (actually better than the Bills). Stevan Ridley is 7th in the league in rushing and when he exits they are getting solid production from guys like Danny Woodhead and Brandon Bolden. The scary part is that overall this offense has room to grow with the passing game suffering from some injuries and lower than expected performance at the TE position.
The Patriots are almost always favoured so it is no surprise that their ATS mark mirrors their W-L record. They have had two similar numbers this year and both were ATS losses (against the Jets and Arizona). The offense is certainly capable of putting up the points and running prowess can help control the clock. However, I still think that is just too many points to spot them and the number is inflated by that first result.
Spread Pick: Buffalo
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New England 38 – Buffalo 28
