NFL: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT
You can’t hold last week’s pick against me can you?
I mean, as soon as it was announced on Sunday morning that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer was out for the game no-one in their right mind would take them, right?
Even without Palmer, the Bengals kept the game close as they picked off Brett Favre twice and recovered a fumble.
There’s no doubt in my mind that if the starting quarterback had been playing in this game that the Jets would’ve been made to pay for those turnovers and Palmer would’ve had a lot more than the 152 passing yards that backup Ryan Fitzpatrick had.
Favre didn’t perform much better for the Jets, throwing 189 yards and one touchdown. Last week was sure money in the bag if Palmer had played. I should be taking a mulligan on that one but I’ll end the whining and get to this week’s game; and hope no last-minute lineup changes swing the game.
That game features the Cleveland Browns visiting the Washington Redskins as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Browns are coming into this game with a renewed confidence, with wins over Cincy and the defending champion New York Giants in their last two games.
Last Monday’s win over the then undefeated Giants was a big boost to a team that started 0-3 and seemed on the verge of being out of the race at midseason.
That win also has 71% of early Sportsbook.com bettors backing the Browns as the Redskins saw their four-game winning streak halted by the St. Louis Rams last weekend. Such one-sided betting can usually be attributed to bettors simply looking at the previous week’s results instead of the big picture. That’s something I like to advise against but with the Redskins overachieving to this point and the Browns underachieving, it’s not something I’m advising against this week.
Cleveland’s potent offense finally started clicking last week and picked up 454 yards against a Giants defense that had been stingy through the first five weeks. Quarterback Derek Anderson threw for 310 yards, connecting with receiver Braylon Edwards for almost half of those.
The running game, fueled by Jamal Lewis’ 88 yards, picked up 144 yards and it may have benefited from tight end Kellen Winslow being sidelined with an undisclosed illness. Steve Heiden replaced Winslow and his blocking helped spur some good gains on the ground. Heiden also caught six passes for 59 yards.
Cleveland’s defense, however, gave up 191 yards on the ground and that could haunt them this week if they let Redskins running back Clinton Portis get going early. Portis leads the league with 643 rushing yards and is averaging a touchdown a game.
Washington has a solid defense and the tools on offense but the Browns offense has the weapons to put up big stats too and that’s why I love the points in this game.
Cleveland has a ton of confidence and is a desperate team. That makes them a great bet as 7 ½-point underdogs this week.
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Take it or Leave it.
