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Ravens vs. Patriots Gambling Odds & 2013 AFC Championship Free NFL Pick

Baltimore vs New England Betting?

Headline: The Rematch – Ravens Travel to Patriots for Second Straight AFC Championship Game

The Baltimore Ravens head to Gillette Stadium for the second year in a row looking for a berth in the Super Bowl. Hopes are for the Ravens that they are able to avenge a loss last year in the Championship game and that they can maintain their role as the “team of destiny” in this year’s playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)
Date/Time: Sunday, January 20, 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Ravens vs. Patriots Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Patriots -9 (-110)
Moneyline: Ravens +325: Patriots -395
Over/Under: 51 1/2 points

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Their chore won’t be an easy one however – the New England Patriots have been terrific down the stretch and will have revenge on their minds as well as the Ravens defeated them earlier this season 31-30. So will it be Ray Lewis in his last season as a Pro or Tom Brady who can cement his legacy as one of the NFL’s best that heads to New Orleans in a couple of weeks?

The Baltimore Ravens are back in the AFC Championship game but to most, their presence here is a surprise. After knocking off the Denver Broncos last week in one of the best games in recent memory, the Ravens are now faced with the task of trying to defeat the defending AFC Champs while avenging their 23-20 loss in this game last year.

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The Ravens have been getting it done with an aging lineup looking for one last hurrah. Gone are the days that Baltimore was dominant on both sides of the ball and in are the days in which they do just enough to get by. The Ravens enter the AFC Championship game with the league’s 15th ranked passing attack and the 11th best rushing game. Not spectacular but good enough to have gotten them past the Colts and the Broncos. Joe Flacco has weapons in the passing game but has shown a penchant for struggling away from home this season. For the Ravens to have success, it will be up to…

Ray Rice looked like a forgotten man down the stretch for the Ravens and not coincidentally Baltimore lost four of five toward the end of the regular season. Re-dedicated to the run, Baltimore has been a much better all around offense. Last week Rice had his highest total of rushes this season with 30. He gained 131 yards and a touchdown with that workload. Rice is Baltimore’s best offensive weapon and will absolutely have to be huge in order for the Ravens to have a chance Sunday.

And now for the Baltimore defense. Ray Lewis’s swan song keeps going on like the song that never ends! Lewis and his crew were just average during the regular season and haven’t been a whole lot better in the playoffs. But they seem to have a force at work that is totally unexplainable.

The New England Patriots entered the playoffs as the second seed in the AFC and on the heels of a streak in which they won nine of their final 10 games. Their streak continued last week when they disposed of the Houston Texans in relatively easy fashion.

It is pretty hard to bet against Tom Brady and the Patriots at home in January. Brady has been on fire and he had success in Week 3 versus the Ravens throwing for 331 yards and a TD. The Patriots enter Sunday’s game with the 4th best passing game in the NFL and the 7th ranked passing attack. The Pats score an average of 34.81 points per game – tops in the NFL. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

We all know that Tom Brady will get his yards but what makes the Pats even more dangerous is the emergence of a running game that has gained over 100 yards in 10 of their last 11 games. A committee approach has been used and has been very effective. Simply put – it doesn’t matter who lines up behind Tom Brady, the offensive line will do its job and yards will be gained.

Along with a stronger running game the Patriots have also benefitted from improved defensive play. The Pats were 9th against the run this season, a misleading 29th versus the pass than they gave up 20.69 points per game – good for 9th in the NFL. New England is second in the NFL in forced turnovers as well – taking the ball away has been a real strength of this team this year.

Betting Prediction: A few trends to consider:
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
• Baltimore is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
• Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games on the road
• New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
• New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games at home
• New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

While I have no doubt that New England will win this game, I am hesitant to predict them covering the spread. The last two games between the two teams have resulted in a combined score of 53-51 for the Patriots. I see the same happening here. In a typically close game between these two sides take the Pats to win but the Ravens to cover the lofty 9 point spread.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +9


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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.